政治冲击和通胀预期：来自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的证据

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104029

Lena Dräger , Klaus Gründler , Niklas Potrafke

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引用次数: 0

摘要

全球供给侧冲击如何影响宏观经济预期？我们利用2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰作为一个自然实验，来确定全球政治冲击对通胀预期的影响，这种冲击转化为一场重大的供给侧冲击。我们对德国的终身经济学教授进行了一项独特的调查，发现对通胀预期和货币政策建议的影响相当大。与代表性家庭样本的比较表明，专家的预期对冲击的调整速度更快，程度也更大。对开放式问题的文本分析表明，影响是由专家形成预期的供给侧模型引起的。

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Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

How do global supply-side shocks influence macroeconomic expectations? We exploit the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock, which translated into a momentous supply-side shock, on inflation expectations. Collecting a unique survey among tenured economics professors in Germany, we find sizable effects on inflation expectations and monetary policy recommendations. A comparison with a representative sample of households shows that experts’ expectations adjust faster and to a larger degree to the shock. Text analyses on open-ended questions reveal that the effects are caused by supply-side models underlying experts’ formation of expectations.

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.