挑战大众叙事:权力转移进程与中美关系

Xiaolin Duan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管学术界对权力转移理论(PTT)及其与当代中美关系的相关性有着浓厚的兴趣,但本文阐述了政策讨论的三个核心方面,这些方面在现有的PTT学术著作中被很大程度上忽视或视为理所当然。本文首先建立了一个分析权力转移过程的分析框架,从而深入分析在这一过程中崛起大国与主导大国之间的战略互动。然后,它批判性地回顾了历史、理论和实证研究,重点关注三个关键方面:(1)权力转移过程中最容易发生战争的时刻的时间和规律性;(2)既有权力在挑战者崛起中的作用;(3)新兴大国和老牌大国的战略冲突回避动机。它挑战了主流叙事,即随着相对权力动态的变化,中美将逐渐走向冲突和对抗,突出了两个大国之间战略互动的复杂性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Challenging Popular Narratives: The Course of Power Transition and Sino–US Relations
Despite intensive scholarly interest in power transition theory (PTT) and its relevance to contemporary Sino–US relations, this article addresses three aspects central to policy discussions that have been largely neglected or taken for granted in the existing scholarly works on PTT. This article first establishes an analytical framework to analyse the course of power transition, enabling an in-depth analysis of the strategic interactions between the rising power and the dominant power throughout this process. It then critically reviews the historical, theoretical, and empirical studies focusing on three key aspects: (1) the timing and regularity of most war-prone moments in the course of power transition; (2) the role of the established power in the rise of its challenger; and (3) the rising power and established power’s incentives for strategic conflict avoidance. It challenges the prevailing narratives that depict a gradual trajectory toward conflict and confrontation as relative power dynamics shift, highlighting the complexity of strategic interactions between the two powers.
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