Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies in China's municipal solid waste sector under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

With the continuous increase in municipal solid waste (MSW) generation, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by MSW treatment have gradually become an important environmental concern. This study developed a comprehensive ten-factor analysis framework using the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) to decompose the driving factors of GHG emissions from MSW sectors in China and its 31 provinces from 2010 to 2022, including population, economy, consumption, and waste generation. The heterogeneity of factor contributions was discussed from both temporal and spatial perspectives to propose mitigation strategies for provincial MSW sectors. The results indicated the following: (1) GHG emissions from the MSW sector increased from 2010 to 2019, followed by a 20.7% decrease from 2019 to 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Regionally, emissions were greater in the eastern provinces than in the central and western provinces. (2) The main positive contributors to the increase in GHG emissions were the consumption expenditure of urban households (HCE, 27.61 MtCO₂e) and GDP (25.71 MtCO₂e). GHG emissions per HCE (−27.31 MtCO₂e) and GHG emissions per GDP (−25.45 MtCO₂e) were the main factors for emission reduction. (3) The contributions of ten driving factors to each province varied significantly across different periods, with the negative effect of emission reduction factors increasing under the impact of the pandemic. The findings of this study can support policymakers in developing differentiated mitigation strategies at the provincial level to promote the sustainable transformation of waste management in China.