社区微电网运行的蒙特卡罗模拟：巴西监管框架下的商业前景

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2024.101856

Francisco C.R. Coelho , Fernando A. Assis , José Filho C. Castro , Antonio R. Donadon , Ronaldo A. Roncolatto , Vittoria E.M.S. Andrade , Pedro A.C. Rosas , Silvangela L.S.L. Barcelos , Osvaldo R. Saavedra , Rafael G. Bento , Rafael K. Carneiro , Pablo F. Hernandez , Luiz C.P. Silva

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引用次数: 0

摘要

微电网为现代能源挑战提供了一种创新的解决方案，在适应分布式能源（DER）日益增长的同时，为配电系统提供了更高的可靠性和弹性。然而，实现微电网的潜在效益需要对其复杂的技术和经济方面进行全面评估。本文在考虑以消费者为中心的内部市场的情况下，引入了一个专门的社区微电网技术经济评估模型。通过蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）解决了负荷变化和间歇发电引起的不确定性。拟议的内部市场模式与巴西的监管框架保持一致，并使目前无法实现的创新成为可能，例如社区内部市场；然而，该模型可以适应任何系统的上下文。我们通过展示一个涉及真正的微电网的案例研究来展示该方法的能力，在这个案例中，所有消费者都可以分享经济利益。这项研究源自一个研究与发展项目，强调了其在推进更清洁和更可持续的能源系统方面的实际意义。

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Monte Carlo simulation of community microgrid operation: Business prospects in the Brazilian regulatory framework

Microgrids offer an innovative solution to modern energy challenges, providing enhanced reliability and resilience to distribution systems while accommodating the growing presence of distributed energy resources (DER). However, realizing the potential benefits of microgrids requires a comprehensive assessment of their complex technical and economic aspects. This paper introduces a dedicated techno-economic evaluation model for community microgrids (CMGs) while considering a consumer-centric internal market. Uncertainties arising from load variations and intermittent generation are addressed via Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The proposed internal market model aligns with the Brazilian regulatory framework and enables currently unavailable innovations, such as a community internal market; however, the model can be adapted to the context of any system. We demonstrate the capabilities of the methodology by presenting a case study involving a real microgrid, where economic benefits are shared among all consumers. This study, derived from a research and development (R&D) project, underscores its practical relevance in advancing cleaner and more sustainable energy systems.

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.