农业政策演变对长期谷物市场预测的影响

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI:10.1002/aepp.13474

Suhwan Lee, Adrienne Ohler, Wyatt Thompson

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引用次数: 0

摘要

长期预测对气候变化政策、粮食安全和农业生产率至关重要，但这些预测往往忽略了最近发现的贸易政策和国内支持随着国家发展而演变的模式。本文提出的 50 年或 100 年谷物市场预测考虑了这些政策模式，以及更重大的贸易政策干扰风险。结果表明，不同的经济发展假设会对市场环境、温室气体排放和谷物价格产生深远影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The impact of agricultural policy evolution on long-run grain market projection

Long-run projections are crucial for climate change policies, food security, and agricultural productivity, yet these projections often overlook recently identified patterns in how trade policies and domestic support evolve as countries develop. The grain market projections over 50 or 100 years presented here take these policy patterns into account, as well as the risks of more significant trade policy disruptions. The results demonstrate that different assumptions about economic development can have far-reaching effects on the market context, greenhouse gas emissions, and grain prices.

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来源期刊

Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY-

CiteScore

10.70

自引率

6.90%

发文量

117

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy provides a forum to address contemporary and emerging policy issues within an economic framework that informs the decision-making and policy-making community. AEPP welcomes submissions related to the economics of public policy themes associated with agriculture; animal, plant, and human health; energy; environment; food and consumer behavior; international development; natural hazards; natural resources; population and migration; and regional and rural development.