{"title":"数据驱动平衡行为的重叠世代模型","authors":"Alexander Gorokhovsky , Anna Rubinchik","doi":"10.1016/j.jmateco.2024.103065","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a class of overlapping generations models that can serve as a workhorse for policy analysis. Recent literature identifies several features of key observable economic variables in Europe and the U.S.: the life-cycle path of earnings is hump-shaped, while the aggregate variables — per-capita consumption and labor hours — exhibit a clear time trend. Our class generates non-monotonic life-cycle behavior of labor supply and the desired aggregate trends in all its balanced-growth equilibria (BGE). There is a finite number of these equilibria and at least one of them exists provided a single-generation consumer problem has a solution. The model has a constant-returns-to-scale production, non-trivial depreciation of capital, exogenous labor-saving growth and an arbitrary individual life-cycle productivity. The necessary restrictions imposed on preferences are consistent with those generating the aggregate trends in a representative-agent economy, while ruling out popular specifications such as Cobb–Douglas or CES. We characterize BGE with MaCurdy preferences and solve a parametrized model that yields at least two stationary equilibria with reasonable interest rates. The hump-shaped life-cycle consumption profile can be generated with an additional parameter interpreted as reflecting family structure or a desire for immediate gratification that peaks at mid-life.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50145,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Economics","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 103065"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"An overlapping-generations model with data-driven equilibrium behavior\",\"authors\":\"Alexander Gorokhovsky , Anna Rubinchik\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jmateco.2024.103065\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>We propose a class of overlapping generations models that can serve as a workhorse for policy analysis. Recent literature identifies several features of key observable economic variables in Europe and the U.S.: the life-cycle path of earnings is hump-shaped, while the aggregate variables — per-capita consumption and labor hours — exhibit a clear time trend. Our class generates non-monotonic life-cycle behavior of labor supply and the desired aggregate trends in all its balanced-growth equilibria (BGE). There is a finite number of these equilibria and at least one of them exists provided a single-generation consumer problem has a solution. The model has a constant-returns-to-scale production, non-trivial depreciation of capital, exogenous labor-saving growth and an arbitrary individual life-cycle productivity. The necessary restrictions imposed on preferences are consistent with those generating the aggregate trends in a representative-agent economy, while ruling out popular specifications such as Cobb–Douglas or CES. We characterize BGE with MaCurdy preferences and solve a parametrized model that yields at least two stationary equilibria with reasonable interest rates. The hump-shaped life-cycle consumption profile can be generated with an additional parameter interpreted as reflecting family structure or a desire for immediate gratification that peaks at mid-life.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50145,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Mathematical Economics\",\"volume\":\"115 \",\"pages\":\"Article 103065\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Mathematical Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304406824001253\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Mathematical Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304406824001253","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
An overlapping-generations model with data-driven equilibrium behavior
We propose a class of overlapping generations models that can serve as a workhorse for policy analysis. Recent literature identifies several features of key observable economic variables in Europe and the U.S.: the life-cycle path of earnings is hump-shaped, while the aggregate variables — per-capita consumption and labor hours — exhibit a clear time trend. Our class generates non-monotonic life-cycle behavior of labor supply and the desired aggregate trends in all its balanced-growth equilibria (BGE). There is a finite number of these equilibria and at least one of them exists provided a single-generation consumer problem has a solution. The model has a constant-returns-to-scale production, non-trivial depreciation of capital, exogenous labor-saving growth and an arbitrary individual life-cycle productivity. The necessary restrictions imposed on preferences are consistent with those generating the aggregate trends in a representative-agent economy, while ruling out popular specifications such as Cobb–Douglas or CES. We characterize BGE with MaCurdy preferences and solve a parametrized model that yields at least two stationary equilibria with reasonable interest rates. The hump-shaped life-cycle consumption profile can be generated with an additional parameter interpreted as reflecting family structure or a desire for immediate gratification that peaks at mid-life.
期刊介绍:
The primary objective of the Journal is to provide a forum for work in economic theory which expresses economic ideas using formal mathematical reasoning. For work to add to this primary objective, it is not sufficient that the mathematical reasoning be new and correct. The work must have real economic content. The economic ideas must be interesting and important. These ideas may pertain to any field of economics or any school of economic thought.