Seasonal drought drives sugarcane borer outbreaks.

Sugarcane borers (SCB) pose a major threat to sugarcane production. Effective pest management requires detailed knowledge of SCB phenology and population dynamics in responses to environmental changes. This study tested the hypothesis that drought drives SCB outbreaks and identified season-specific effects by investigating large-scale field data of these pests in 4 key sugarcane-growing provinces in south subtropical and tropical China (Guangxi, Guangdong, Yunnan, and Hainan) from 1987 to 2018. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was used as a drought indicator at various time scales. We found that drought during a specific month can result in significant changes in the annual SCB outbreak status, such as November in Guangxi, June in Yunnan, and September in Hainan. By summarizing seasonal effects of drought across study locations, we found a general pattern that SCB outbreaks increased with drier conditions in summer, whereas they were promoted by wetter conditions in fall. This research provides crucial knowledge for predicting SCB outbreaks under seasonal and climate changes. This information is also highly critical for increasing the efficiency and accuracy of integrated pest management strategies.