具有对称波动的易感-传染-易感流行病模型：有限系统的平衡状态和稳定性分析

IF 1.4 4区生物学 Q4 MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY

Acta Biotheoretica Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI:10.1007/s10441-024-09490-0

Paulo S. Adami, Olavo H. Menin, Alexandre S. Martinez

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引用次数: 0

摘要

准确预测流行病的演变面临着各种挑战，如了解疾病动态和流行病学数据不足。面对这些问题，最近的一种方法是基于前两个统计矩建立易感-传染-易感（SIS）动态模型。在此，我们改进了这一方法，纳入了有限规模的种群，并分析了由此产生的模型的稳定性。结果强调了不确定性和种群规模对流行病自然史的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible Epidemic Model with Symmetrical Fluctuations: Equilibrium States and Stability Analyses for Finite Systems

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Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible Epidemic Model with Symmetrical Fluctuations: Equilibrium States and Stability Analyses for Finite Systems

Accurate prediction of epidemic evolution faces challenges such as understanding disease dynamics and inadequate epidemiological data. A recent approach faced these issues by modeling susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) dynamics based on the first two statistical moments. Here, we improve this approach by including finite-size populations and analyzing the stability of the resulting model. Results underscore the influence of uncertainties and population size in the natural history of the epidemic.

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来源期刊

Acta Biotheoretica 生物-生物学

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

7.70%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Acta Biotheoretica is devoted to the promotion of theoretical biology, encompassing mathematical biology and the philosophy of biology, paying special attention to the methodology of formation of biological theory. Papers on all kind of biological theories are welcome. Interesting subjects include philosophy of biology, biomathematics, computational biology, genetics, ecology and morphology. The process of theory formation can be presented in verbal or mathematical form. Moreover, purely methodological papers can be devoted to the historical origins of the philosophy underlying biological theories and concepts. Papers should contain clear statements of biological assumptions, and where applicable, a justification of their translation into mathematical form and a detailed discussion of the mathematical treatment. The connection to empirical data should be clarified. Acta Biotheoretica also welcomes critical book reviews, short comments on previous papers and short notes directing attention to interesting new theoretical ideas.