European anchovy's abundance, more affected by climatic conditions than fishing activities in the northwest African waters

The marine waters off the coast of northwest Africa are known for being highly productive upwelling regions in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. The present study evaluated the combined effects of climate change and sustainable fishing levels on the long-term sustainability of European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), a target pelagic species found along the West African coastal waters. The present study used survey biomass time series from survey vessels and species catch time series from commercial fisheries operating in the region. Hence, we investigated the relationship between fishing dynamics and environmental factors. The status of anchovy stock was determined by analyzing changes in different initial depletion rates using a state-space Bayesian surplus production model. We used Principal component analysis to identify the essential environmental data set, while Generalized Additive Models (GAM) were employed to determine the influence of the environment on fisheries. The stock assessment model revealed that fishing intensity did not affect the abundance of anchovy in the region even when tested under different biomass depletion scenarios. However, by employing GAMs, the research assessed the impact of environmental variables on fish biomass, indicating that sea surface temperature (SST) significantly influences anchovy abundance in the region. The latitudinal gradient also had a significant influence on this species' abundance. These findings underscore the vulnerability of the small-scale fisheries sector in the tropical upwelling zone to climate change. The study concludes that even in the face of potential negative impacts from environmental factors, optimizing fishing methods can contribute to the preservation of pelagic resources in the region. It emphasizes the importance of managing fishery resources in a sustainable, economically viable, and socially acceptable way.