Institutional unlocking or technological unlocking? The logic of carbon unlocking in the new energy vehicle industry in China

As a result of unbalanced energy structure, high carbon emissions, and global climate change, carbon lock-in has gained considerable attention. To achieve carbon unlocking, technological advancements and institutional innovation are essential. This paper uses the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry as its case study, identifying the differences and evolutionary trends between institutional unlocking and technological unlocking logics, and demonstrating how these logics affect industry and enterprise development and eventually advance the process of carbon unlocking. The findings are: (1) Institutional incentives play a critical role in the development of an industry at the beginning. As the industry matures, technological innovation plays a central role in driving industry development, while institutional logic gradually loses influence and technological logic gains influence. (2) Dual logics have undergone a complex transformation of compatibility, mutual exclusivity, partial confrontation, and cooperation during the process of carbon unlocking. It is possible for the complexity of the relationship to range from low to high, with both becoming less complex as the industry matures. (3) Through ongoing gaming and adjustment, the dual logics encourage the NEV industry to realize carbon unlocking and low-carbon transformation at the same time.