Strategic land management for ecosystem Sustainability: Scenario insights from the Northeast black soil region

Human-environment interactions in agroecosystems are frequently mirrored by land-use changes. Clarifying the conflict between land use and ecological health in agricultural production regions is essential for achieving sustainable agricultural development and maintaining ecosystem services. Therefore, we chose the Northeast Black Soil Zone, a major grain producing area, to explore the impacts of land use change on ecosystem services from 2000 to 2030. The results show that: During the 30-year period, 1) Under any of the simulated scenarios, the level of ecosystem services in the NBSR tends to increase overall. 2) Rapid conversion between land use types and reduction of forest land area lead to weakening of synergies and increasing of trade-offs among ecosystem services. 3) Conversion and intensity of land use types significantly impacted on the level of ecosystem services under different scenarios (p < 0.05); the transfer out of built-up land (0.1249) and the transfer in of water area (0.1153) contributed more to the ESI. 4) The land use pattern under the sustainable development policy (SD scenario), which emphasizes ecological land conservation, effectively enhances ecosystem service levels. The results offer critical insights for future land-use planning and sustainable ecosystem management contributing to balance regional food security with ecological conservation.