鉴于厄尔尼诺/南方涛动隐含状态，得克萨斯州可再生能源供需的潜在气候可预测性

IF 11.7 1区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Science Advances Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1126/sciadv.ado3517

Mengjie Zhang, Lei Yan, Yash Amonkar, Adam Nayak, Upmanu Lall

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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候多变性会影响可再生能源电力的供需，进而影响系统的可靠性。利用非均质隐马尔可夫模型客观识别的反映厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）动态的热带太平洋海面温度的隐藏状态，我们首次提供了美国得克萨斯州未来 1 到 6 个月每月风能和太阳能以及供热和制冷能源需求的潜在可预测性实例，该地区可再生能源电力渗透率高，容易受到气候驱动的供需失衡的干扰。我们发现，根据厄尔尼诺/南方涛动状态和日历月份的不同，能源供应过剩或供应不足以及供暖/制冷需求异常的可能性在统计学上非常明显。我们还讨论了金融证券化的影响以及预测的潜在应用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Potential climate predictability of renewable energy supply and demand for Texas given the ENSO hidden state

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Potential climate predictability of renewable energy supply and demand for Texas given the ENSO hidden state

Climate variability influences renewable electricity supply and demand and hence system reliability. Using the hidden states of the sea surface temperature of tropical Pacific Ocean that reflect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics that is objectively identified by a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model, we provide a first example of the potential predictability of monthly wind and solar energy and heating and cooling energy demand for 1 to 6 months ahead for Texas, United States, a region that has a high penetration of renewable electricity and is susceptible to disruption by climate-driven supply-demand imbalances. We find a statistically significant potential for oversupply or undersupply of energy and anomalous heating/cooling demand depending on the ENSO state and the calendar month. Implications for financial securitization and the potential application of forecasts are discussed.

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来源期刊

Science Advances 综合性期刊-综合性期刊

CiteScore

21.40

自引率

1.50%

发文量

1937

审稿时长

29 weeks

期刊介绍： Science Advances, an open-access journal by AAAS, publishes impactful research in diverse scientific areas. It aims for fair, fast, and expert peer review, providing freely accessible research to readers. Led by distinguished scientists, the journal supports AAAS's mission by extending Science magazine's capacity to identify and promote significant advances. Evolving digital publishing technologies play a crucial role in advancing AAAS's global mission for science communication and benefitting humankind.