{"title":"用优化控制模拟沙门氏菌病在人类和奶牛中的传播动态","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.apm.2024.115781","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to examine the transmission dynamics and control analysis of salmonellosis in humans and dairy cattle. The model considers three time-dependent controls (improving hygiene, vaccination, and organic acid disinfectants), human and dairy cattle populations, and Salmonella typhimurium bacteria in the environments and dairy products. The next generation matrix technique is applied to compute the effective reproduction number <span><math><mi>R</mi></math></span> that gauges the persistence and extinction of salmonellosis while adopting the proposed control interventions. The stability behavior of the equilibrium states is examined using the Lypunov function method based on the effective reproduction number <span><math><mi>R</mi></math></span>. The Latin hypercube sampling and the partial rank correlation coefficient methods are used to investigate the sensitivity and uncertainty of input parameters against model outputs. The results indicate that improving hygiene and vaccination can eliminate salmonellosis. Improving hygiene habits at a rate of at least 0.9 per day is recommended to eliminate salmonellosis. An efficacious vaccine that can immunize at least 85% of the vaccinated dairy cattle is also recommended to eradicate salmonellosis if it can be implemented to vaccinate susceptible dairy cattle at a rate of at least 0.45 per day for the first 30 days of the salmonellosis outbreak. The use of all three controls is recommended to eliminate salmonellosis quickly and at the lowest cost.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50980,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Modeling salmonellosis transmission dynamics in humans and dairy cattle with optimal controls\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.apm.2024.115781\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to examine the transmission dynamics and control analysis of salmonellosis in humans and dairy cattle. The model considers three time-dependent controls (improving hygiene, vaccination, and organic acid disinfectants), human and dairy cattle populations, and Salmonella typhimurium bacteria in the environments and dairy products. The next generation matrix technique is applied to compute the effective reproduction number <span><math><mi>R</mi></math></span> that gauges the persistence and extinction of salmonellosis while adopting the proposed control interventions. The stability behavior of the equilibrium states is examined using the Lypunov function method based on the effective reproduction number <span><math><mi>R</mi></math></span>. The Latin hypercube sampling and the partial rank correlation coefficient methods are used to investigate the sensitivity and uncertainty of input parameters against model outputs. The results indicate that improving hygiene and vaccination can eliminate salmonellosis. Improving hygiene habits at a rate of at least 0.9 per day is recommended to eliminate salmonellosis. An efficacious vaccine that can immunize at least 85% of the vaccinated dairy cattle is also recommended to eradicate salmonellosis if it can be implemented to vaccinate susceptible dairy cattle at a rate of at least 0.45 per day for the first 30 days of the salmonellosis outbreak. The use of all three controls is recommended to eliminate salmonellosis quickly and at the lowest cost.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50980,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Applied Mathematical Modelling\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Applied Mathematical Modelling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0307904X24005341\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0307904X24005341","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Modeling salmonellosis transmission dynamics in humans and dairy cattle with optimal controls
In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to examine the transmission dynamics and control analysis of salmonellosis in humans and dairy cattle. The model considers three time-dependent controls (improving hygiene, vaccination, and organic acid disinfectants), human and dairy cattle populations, and Salmonella typhimurium bacteria in the environments and dairy products. The next generation matrix technique is applied to compute the effective reproduction number that gauges the persistence and extinction of salmonellosis while adopting the proposed control interventions. The stability behavior of the equilibrium states is examined using the Lypunov function method based on the effective reproduction number . The Latin hypercube sampling and the partial rank correlation coefficient methods are used to investigate the sensitivity and uncertainty of input parameters against model outputs. The results indicate that improving hygiene and vaccination can eliminate salmonellosis. Improving hygiene habits at a rate of at least 0.9 per day is recommended to eliminate salmonellosis. An efficacious vaccine that can immunize at least 85% of the vaccinated dairy cattle is also recommended to eradicate salmonellosis if it can be implemented to vaccinate susceptible dairy cattle at a rate of at least 0.45 per day for the first 30 days of the salmonellosis outbreak. The use of all three controls is recommended to eliminate salmonellosis quickly and at the lowest cost.
期刊介绍:
Applied Mathematical Modelling focuses on research related to the mathematical modelling of engineering and environmental processes, manufacturing, and industrial systems. A significant emerging area of research activity involves multiphysics processes, and contributions in this area are particularly encouraged.
This influential publication covers a wide spectrum of subjects including heat transfer, fluid mechanics, CFD, and transport phenomena; solid mechanics and mechanics of metals; electromagnets and MHD; reliability modelling and system optimization; finite volume, finite element, and boundary element procedures; modelling of inventory, industrial, manufacturing and logistics systems for viable decision making; civil engineering systems and structures; mineral and energy resources; relevant software engineering issues associated with CAD and CAE; and materials and metallurgical engineering.
Applied Mathematical Modelling is primarily interested in papers developing increased insights into real-world problems through novel mathematical modelling, novel applications or a combination of these. Papers employing existing numerical techniques must demonstrate sufficient novelty in the solution of practical problems. Papers on fuzzy logic in decision-making or purely financial mathematics are normally not considered. Research on fractional differential equations, bifurcation, and numerical methods needs to include practical examples. Population dynamics must solve realistic scenarios. Papers in the area of logistics and business modelling should demonstrate meaningful managerial insight. Submissions with no real-world application will not be considered.