传染病数学模型和疫苗接种策略的影响。

IF 2.6 4区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics
Diana Bolatova, Shirali Kadyrov, Ardak Kashkynbayev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

数学建模在了解和抗击传染病方面发挥着至关重要的作用,它提供了对疾病传播和疫苗接种策略影响的预测性见解。本文探讨了数学建模在流行病控制工作中的意义,重点关注疫苗接种策略、疾病传播率和人群免疫力之间的相互作用。为了便于对疫苗接种策略进行有意义的比较,我们将疫苗接种能力固定在总人口的 10% 到 100% 之间,以保持框架的一致性。例如,在接种率为 50% 的情况下,脉冲接种策略避免了约 45.61% 的死亡,而连续接种和混合接种策略分别避免了约 45.18% 和 45.69% 的死亡。敏感性分析进一步表明,与脉冲接种相比,连续接种对降低基本繁殖数 $ R_0 $ 有更直接的影响。通过分析 R_0 $、脉冲接种系数和连续接种参数等关键参数,该研究强调了数学模型在疾病爆发期间制定公共卫生政策和指导决策方面的价值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases and the impact of vaccination strategies.

Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in understanding and combating infectious diseases, offering predictive insights into disease spread and the impact of vaccination strategies. This paper explored the significance of mathematical modeling in epidemic control efforts, focusing on the interplay between vaccination strategies, disease transmission rates, and population immunity. To facilitate meaningful comparisons of vaccination strategies, we maintained a consistent framework by fixing the vaccination capacity to vary from 10 to 100% of the total population. As an example, at a 50% vaccination capacity, the pulse strategy averted approximately 45.61% of deaths, while continuous and hybrid strategies averted around 45.18 and 45.69%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis further indicated that continuous vaccination has a more direct impact on reducing the basic reproduction number $ R_0 $ compared to pulse vaccination. By analyzing key parameters such as $ R_0 $, pulse vaccination coefficients, and continuous vaccination parameters, the study underscores the value of mathematical modeling in shaping public health policies and guiding decision-making during disease outbreaks.

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来源期刊
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 工程技术-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
586
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (MBE) is an interdisciplinary Open Access journal promoting cutting-edge research, technology transfer and knowledge translation about complex data and information processing. MBE publishes Research articles (long and original research); Communications (short and novel research); Expository papers; Technology Transfer and Knowledge Translation reports (description of new technologies and products); Announcements and Industrial Progress and News (announcements and even advertisement, including major conferences).
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