能源价格上涨对波兰经济的影响

IF 13.6 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Michał Gradzewicz , Janusz Jabłonowski , Michał Sasiela , Zbigniew Żółkiewski
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在评估俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后产生的能源价格冲击对波兰经济的影响。我们计算了能源冲击(分别针对天然气、石油和煤炭价格)对实体经济的影响,以及能源价格对总体价格水平的传递。前一部分分析使用波兰经济的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型进行模拟,而冲击对价格的影响则使用双列昂蒂夫价格模型进行模拟。此外,价格模型还增加了理论所建议的名义工资调整机制。这种方法上的创新是我们对实证经济学的原创性贡献。我们的模拟结果表明,与基线方案相比,2022 年观察到的所有能源产品的价格冲击导致国内生产总值下降约 2.8%。此外,我们还记录了能源价格上涨对通胀的强烈促进作用。在能源价格受到综合冲击后,消费平减指数增加了 10.3%(如果我们将价格上涨分摊到各行业),但如果我们考虑到额外的名义工资调整(确保实际工资不变),模拟效果则为 15.4%。我们表明,由于冲击的前向传播和后向传播不同,石油价格冲击对实际总量的影响最大,而天然气价格冲击对价格的影响最大。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The impact of energy price increases on the Polish economy
The aim of this paper is to assess the impact on the Polish economy of energy price shocks arising after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We computed both the impact of the energy shocks (separately for gas, oil and coal prices) on the real side of the economy, and the pass-through of energy prices to the overall price level. The former part of the analysis was simulated using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Polish economy while the price effects of the shocks were simulated using a dual Leontief price model. Additionally, the price model was augmented with the mechanism of nominal wage adjustment suggested by the theory. This methodological novelty is our original contribution to empirical economics. Our simulations indicate that the price shock for all energy goods of the magnitude observed in 2022 resulted in a decrease in GDP of about 2.8% relative to the baseline solution. Moreover, we document a strong pro-inflationary effect of rising energy prices. After a combined shock to energy prices the consumption deflator increases by 10.3% (when we include the spreading the price increases across the industries), but the effect is simulated at 15.4%, when we account for an additional nominal wage adjustments (ensuring no real wage changes). We show that due to the differences in forward and backward propagation of shocks, the oil price shock had the strongest impact on real aggregates, whereas prices were hit the strongest by the gas price shock.
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来源期刊
Energy Economics
Energy Economics ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
18.60
自引率
12.50%
发文量
524
期刊介绍: Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.
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