[基于 PLUS-InVEST-Geodector 模型的三江源国家公园碳储量时空变化及驱动力]。

Q2 Environmental Science
Tian-Chao Jia, Xi-Wu Hu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

探讨三江源国家公园生态系统固碳服务功能的时空变化、驱动力及未来发展趋势,对区域生态保护和可持续发展具有重要意义。选取三江源国家公园1990-2020年每5年的土地利用历史数据,基于PLUS-InVEST-Geodector模型,分析了历史碳储量的时空变化,并结合多种因素探讨了时空变化的驱动力。预测了三江源国家公园在自然发展和生态保护情景下 2030 年的碳储量。结果表明:①1990-2020 年三江源国家公园碳储量呈现 "增-减-增-减 "的波动特征,碳储量总体增加了 41.85×106 t,其中草地贡献最大。1990-2020年三江源国家公园碳储量空间分布特征变化不大,空间分布演变相对稳定。长江源公园、澜沧江源公园和黄河源公园的碳储量贡献率为 7∶1∶2,与公园面积基本相当。1990-2020年三江源国家公园碳储量时空变化的主要驱动因子为:FVC、土壤类型和年降水量。各驱动因子的交互检测结果均呈现双因子增强和非线性增强。预测三江源国家公园的碳储量在自然发展情景和生态保护情景下从 2020 年到 2030 年将分别减少 4.87% 和 3.98%,生态保护情景下的碳储量减少具有显著的抑制作用。研究结果可为三江源国家公园的国家空间规划和提高陆地生态系统碳储量提供数据支持。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
[Spatial-temporal Change and Driving Force of Carbon Storage in Three-River-Source National Park Based on PLUS-InVEST-Geodector Model].

Exploring the spatial-temporal changes, driving forces, and future development tendency of the carbon sequestration service function of the Three-River-Source National Park ecosystem has great significance for regional ecological protection and sustainable development. Historical land-use data of Three-River-Source National Park from 1990 to 2020 were selected at five-year intervals, and based on the PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model, the spatial-temporal changes of historical carbon storage were analyzed, and the driving forces of spatial-temporal variation were explored combined with multiple factors. The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park in 2030 was predicted under the scenarios of natural development and ecological protection. The results showed that: ① The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park showed a fluctuating characteristic of increase-decrease-increase-decrease from 1990 to 2020, the carbon storage was increased by 41.85×106 t overall, and the grassland took the largest contribution. ② The spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage in Three-River-Source National Park had little change between 1990 to 2020, and the evolution of the spatial distribution was relatively stable. The contribution ratio of the Yangtze River source park, Lancang River source park, and Yellow River source park was 7∶1∶2, which was roughly equivalent to the park area. ③ The major driving factors of the spatial-temporal variation of carbon storage in Three-River-Source National Park from 1990 to 2020 were: FVC, soil type, and annual precipitation. The interactive detection of each driving factor showed dual-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement. ④ The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park was predicted to decrease by 4.87% and 3.98% from 2020 to 2030 under the scenarios of natural development and ecological protection, respectively, and the carbon storage reduction under the ecological protection scenario had a significant inhibitory effect. The findings can provide data support for national spatial planning of Three-River-Source National Park and the enhancement of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage.

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来源期刊
环境科学
环境科学 Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15329
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