COVID-19大流行对中国报告的应报传染病的影响：间断时间序列分析

IF 3.8 3区医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

American journal of infection control Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI:10.1016/j.ajic.2024.10.010

Jin Li BS , Fang Yuan BS , Shengfu Fan MS Med , Jie Tian MS Med , Jianzhou Yang MS Med

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的：在重大公共卫生危机期间，通常报告的传染病的流行病学特征可能会发生变化。基于常规报告的应报传染病数据，我们研究了中国传染病的发病率和死亡率是否受到冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的影响：我们分析了 2013 年 1 月至 2024 年 3 月期间每月报告的全国应报传染病数据。采用间断时间序列（ITS）设计，我们对 COVID-19 流行之前、期间和之后的传染病发病率和死亡率变化进行了泊松回归评估：我们发现，在 COVID-19 爆发期间，全国报告的传染病发病率立即显著下降（相对风险 (RR)=0.6206; 95% 置信区间 (CI)= 0.6201-0.6211），死亡率也是如此（RR=0.7814; 95% CI=0.7696-0.7933）。大流行控制措施结束后，从 2023 年 1 月开始，报告的发病率突然飙升，与大流行前相比急剧上升（RR=1.8608；95% CI=1.8595-1.8621）。报告的死亡率也有所上升（RR=1.081；95% CI=1.0638-1.0984）：结论：COVID-19 爆发后，传染病的总发病率和死亡率立即下降。结论：COVID-19 爆发后，传染病的总体发病率和死亡率立即下降，但在大流行控制措施结束后，其发病率急剧上升，死亡率也有所上升。

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The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on reported notifiable infectious diseases in China: An interrupted time series analysis

Background

During major public health crises, the epidemiological characteristics of commonly reported infectious diseases may change. Based on routinely reported data on notifiable infectious diseases, we investigated whether the incidence and mortality of infectious diseases in China were affected by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

Methods

We analyzed monthly reported data on nationally notifiable infectious diseases from January 2013 to March 2024. Using an interrupted time series design, we performed Poisson regression to assess changes in the incidence and mortality rates of infectious diseases before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results

We found that during the COVID-19 outbreak, the reported incidence of nationally notifiable infectious diseases significantly and immediately decreased (relative risk [RR] = 0.6206; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.6201-0.6211), and so did the mortality rate (RR = 0.7814; 95% CI = 0.7696-0.7933). After the end of pandemic control measures, the reported incidence surged abruptly starting from January 2023, showing a sharp rise compared with the prepandemic period (RR = 1.8608; 95% CI = 1.8595-1.8621). The reported mortality increased, too (RR = 1.081; 95% CI = 1.0638-1.0984).

Conclusions

The overall incidence and mortality of infectious diseases decreased immediately after the outbreak of COVID-19. After the end of pandemic control measures, their incidence rate sharply increased, and their mortality rate also rose.

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来源期刊

American journal of infection control 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

4.10%

发文量

479

审稿时长

24 days

期刊介绍： AJIC covers key topics and issues in infection control and epidemiology. Infection control professionals, including physicians, nurses, and epidemiologists, rely on AJIC for peer-reviewed articles covering clinical topics as well as original research. As the official publication of the Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology (APIC)