Abbas Bahrampour, Mohammad Reza Baneshi, Ali Karamoozian, Navisa Sadat Seyedghasemi, Abbas Etminan, Mostafa Eghbalian
{"title":"使用贝叶斯混合治愈率虚弱模型评估终末期肾病患者的长期生存率","authors":"Abbas Bahrampour, Mohammad Reza Baneshi, Ali Karamoozian, Navisa Sadat Seyedghasemi, Abbas Etminan, Mostafa Eghbalian","doi":"10.18502/ijph.v53i9.16464","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Along with the increasing prevalence of ESRD in developing countries, the use of more up-to-date statistical models is highly recommended. It is crucial to control potential cure pattern and heterogenicity among patients.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this longitudinal study, the data of 170 hemodialysis patients who visited the dialysis department of Shafa Hospital in Kerman from 2006 to 2016 were collected. To provides robust estimates the time to event data (death) were analyzed with a gamma frailty mixed cure Weibull model (MC-WG) using Bayesian inference.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>About 49% of patients experienced the death and median survival time was 37.5 months. Older patients (0.264), female patients (0.269), and patients with higher mean serum urea levels (0.186) had a higher risk of death. Moreover, we observe a decrease in death with increase in Creatine (Cr).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>In the MC-WG Bayesian model, the diabetes, AST, calcium, phosphorus and uric acid variables had a significant effect on the survival of hemodialysis patients, while they were not significant in the Cox PH model. The results of MC-WG Bayesian model are more consistent with other studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":49173,"journal":{"name":"Iranian Journal of Public Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11490321/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Long-Term Survival of Patient with End-Stage Renal Disease Using Bayesian Mixture Cure Rate Frailty Models.\",\"authors\":\"Abbas Bahrampour, Mohammad Reza Baneshi, Ali Karamoozian, Navisa Sadat Seyedghasemi, Abbas Etminan, Mostafa Eghbalian\",\"doi\":\"10.18502/ijph.v53i9.16464\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Along with the increasing prevalence of ESRD in developing countries, the use of more up-to-date statistical models is highly recommended. It is crucial to control potential cure pattern and heterogenicity among patients.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this longitudinal study, the data of 170 hemodialysis patients who visited the dialysis department of Shafa Hospital in Kerman from 2006 to 2016 were collected. To provides robust estimates the time to event data (death) were analyzed with a gamma frailty mixed cure Weibull model (MC-WG) using Bayesian inference.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>About 49% of patients experienced the death and median survival time was 37.5 months. Older patients (0.264), female patients (0.269), and patients with higher mean serum urea levels (0.186) had a higher risk of death. Moreover, we observe a decrease in death with increase in Creatine (Cr).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>In the MC-WG Bayesian model, the diabetes, AST, calcium, phosphorus and uric acid variables had a significant effect on the survival of hemodialysis patients, while they were not significant in the Cox PH model. The results of MC-WG Bayesian model are more consistent with other studies.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49173,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Iranian Journal of Public Health\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11490321/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Iranian Journal of Public Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v53i9.16464\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Iranian Journal of Public Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18502/ijph.v53i9.16464","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Long-Term Survival of Patient with End-Stage Renal Disease Using Bayesian Mixture Cure Rate Frailty Models.
Background: Along with the increasing prevalence of ESRD in developing countries, the use of more up-to-date statistical models is highly recommended. It is crucial to control potential cure pattern and heterogenicity among patients.
Methods: In this longitudinal study, the data of 170 hemodialysis patients who visited the dialysis department of Shafa Hospital in Kerman from 2006 to 2016 were collected. To provides robust estimates the time to event data (death) were analyzed with a gamma frailty mixed cure Weibull model (MC-WG) using Bayesian inference.
Results: About 49% of patients experienced the death and median survival time was 37.5 months. Older patients (0.264), female patients (0.269), and patients with higher mean serum urea levels (0.186) had a higher risk of death. Moreover, we observe a decrease in death with increase in Creatine (Cr).
Conclusion: In the MC-WG Bayesian model, the diabetes, AST, calcium, phosphorus and uric acid variables had a significant effect on the survival of hemodialysis patients, while they were not significant in the Cox PH model. The results of MC-WG Bayesian model are more consistent with other studies.
期刊介绍：
Iranian Journal of Public Health has been continuously published since 1971, as the only Journal in all health domains, with wide distribution (including WHO in Geneva and Cairo) in two languages (English and Persian). From 2001 issue, the Journal is published only in English language. During the last 41 years more than 2000 scientific research papers, results of health activities, surveys and services, have been published in this Journal. To meet the increasing demand of respected researchers, as of January 2012, the Journal is published monthly. I wish this will assist to promote the level of global knowledge. The main topics that the Journal would welcome are: Bioethics, Disaster and Health, Entomology, Epidemiology, Health and Environment, Health Economics, Health Services, Immunology, Medical Genetics, Mental Health, Microbiology, Nutrition and Food Safety, Occupational Health, Oral Health. We would be very delighted to receive your Original papers, Review Articles, Short communications, Case reports and Scientific Letters to the Editor on the above mentioned research areas.
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