{"title":"儿童水痘脑炎的风险因素分析和预测模型构建：回顾性队列研究。","authors":"Ce Wang, Li Tang, Dandan Guo","doi":"10.1177/13596535241291132","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>This study aimed to analyze the risk factors for varicella encephalitis in children and establish a predictive model.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This retrospective cohort study included a varicella encephalitis group (<i>n</i> = 75) and a varicella-non-encephalitis group (<i>n</i> = 135). Logistic regression analysis was employed to find risk factors for varicella encephalitis and create a predictive model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Older age, vomiting, poor mental status, and prolonged rash duration were independent risk factors for varicella encephalitis (<i>p</i> < .05). The predictive model for varicella encephalitis combined above four factors. The ROC curve of the predictive model showed an area under the curve of 0.955 (95% CI 0.925-0.986) for varicella encephalitis in children with a sensitivity of 94.7%, and a specificity of 86.0%.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Children with varicella who are older, experience vomiting, exhibit poor mental status, or have a prolonged rash duration should be closely monitored clinically. The predictive model combining these four factors demonstrates good predictive efficiency.</p>","PeriodicalId":8364,"journal":{"name":"Antiviral Therapy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysis of risk factors and prediction model construction for varicella encephalitis in children: A retrospective cohort study.\",\"authors\":\"Ce Wang, Li Tang, Dandan Guo\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/13596535241291132\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>This study aimed to analyze the risk factors for varicella encephalitis in children and establish a predictive model.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This retrospective cohort study included a varicella encephalitis group (<i>n</i> = 75) and a varicella-non-encephalitis group (<i>n</i> = 135). Logistic regression analysis was employed to find risk factors for varicella encephalitis and create a predictive model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Older age, vomiting, poor mental status, and prolonged rash duration were independent risk factors for varicella encephalitis (<i>p</i> < .05). The predictive model for varicella encephalitis combined above four factors. The ROC curve of the predictive model showed an area under the curve of 0.955 (95% CI 0.925-0.986) for varicella encephalitis in children with a sensitivity of 94.7%, and a specificity of 86.0%.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Children with varicella who are older, experience vomiting, exhibit poor mental status, or have a prolonged rash duration should be closely monitored clinically. The predictive model combining these four factors demonstrates good predictive efficiency.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":8364,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Antiviral Therapy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Antiviral Therapy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/13596535241291132\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Antiviral Therapy","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13596535241291132","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysis of risk factors and prediction model construction for varicella encephalitis in children: A retrospective cohort study.
Introduction: This study aimed to analyze the risk factors for varicella encephalitis in children and establish a predictive model.
Methods: This retrospective cohort study included a varicella encephalitis group (n = 75) and a varicella-non-encephalitis group (n = 135). Logistic regression analysis was employed to find risk factors for varicella encephalitis and create a predictive model.
Results: Older age, vomiting, poor mental status, and prolonged rash duration were independent risk factors for varicella encephalitis (p < .05). The predictive model for varicella encephalitis combined above four factors. The ROC curve of the predictive model showed an area under the curve of 0.955 (95% CI 0.925-0.986) for varicella encephalitis in children with a sensitivity of 94.7%, and a specificity of 86.0%.
Conclusion: Children with varicella who are older, experience vomiting, exhibit poor mental status, or have a prolonged rash duration should be closely monitored clinically. The predictive model combining these four factors demonstrates good predictive efficiency.
期刊介绍：
Antiviral Therapy (an official publication of the International Society of Antiviral Research) is an international, peer-reviewed journal devoted to publishing articles on the clinical development and use of antiviral agents and vaccines, and the treatment of all viral diseases. Antiviral Therapy is one of the leading journals in virology and infectious diseases.
The journal is comprehensive, and publishes articles concerning all clinical aspects of antiviral therapy. It features editorials, original research papers, specially commissioned review articles, letters and book reviews. The journal is aimed at physicians and specialists interested in clinical and basic research.
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