Optimal Design of a Hazardous Materials Transportation Network considering Uncertainty in Accident Consequences

Hazardous materials pose significant dangers during transportation due to their flammable and explosive properties. The consequences of accidents involving such materials are often severe and irreparable. A well-designed hazardous materials transportation network can mitigate these risks. However, designing such a network presents two major challenges: quantifying the risk associated with hazardous materials transportation and addressing the hierarchical relationship between government and companies. To address these challenges, we enhance the accuracy of accident probability estimates and the comprehensiveness of accident consequence assessments, incorporating the uncertainty of accident outcomes. We propose a comprehensive risk assessment model and develop a bilevel programming model to reflect the hierarchical relationship. In this model, the government at the upper level aims to minimize the total risk, while companies at the lower level seek to minimize their total costs. The model is transformed using chance-constrained programming and solved using heuristic algorithms. We apply the model to the highway network in Anhui province, China, to verify its validity. The results demonstrate that the model effectively manages the hierarchical relationship between government and companies, reduces the risk of hazardous materials transportation, and enhances the stability and safety of the transportation network.