综合分析 SARS-CoV-2 的传播史及其与 2019-2023 年意大利大流行疫情背后的病毒分子进化的关联。

IF 4.8 2区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107262

Eleonora Cella , Vagner Fonseca , Francesco Branda , Stephane Tosta , Keldenn Moreno , Gabriel Schuab , Sobur Ali , Svetoslav Nanev Slavov , Fabio Scarpa , Luciane Amorim Santos , Simone Kashima , Eduan Wilkinson , Houriiyah Tegally , Carla Mavian , Alessandra Borsetti , Francesca Caccuri , Marco Salemi , Tulio de Oliveira , Taj Azarian , Ana Maria Bispo de Filippis , Marta Giovanetti

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景：意大利受到 COVID-19 大流行的严重影响，在新变种相继出现后经历了多波感染。了解 SARS-CoV-2 的传播模式和演变对未来的防备工作至关重要：方法：我们结合流行病学和系统动力学方法对病毒基因组序列进行了分析，以确定 SARS-CoV-2 变种在国内的传播方式：结果：我们的研究结果表明，SARS-CoV-2变种在国际上是双向传播的，意大利介于输入和输出病毒之间。从 2021 年到 2023 年，意大利经历了四次不同的疫潮，每次疫潮都导致死亡人数大幅下降。这些浪潮主要是由 Alpha、Delta 和 Omicron 等 VOCs 的出现推动的，这反映在观察到的传播动态和公共卫生措施的有效性中：在意大利应对大流行的整个过程中，病毒传播和变异体流行的模式不断变化，这凸显了灵活的公共卫生战略和基因组监测的持续重要性，这两者对于跟踪变异体的演变和有效调整控制措施以确保为未来的爆发做好准备至关重要。

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Integrated analyses of the transmission history of SARS-CoV-2 and its association with molecular evolution of the virus underlining the pandemic outbreaks in Italy, 2019-2023

Background

Italy was significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, experiencing multiple waves of infection following the sequential emergence of new variants. Understanding the transmission patterns and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 is vital for future preparedness.

Methods

We conducted an analysis of viral genome sequences, integrating epidemiological and phylodynamic approaches, to characterize how SARS-CoV-2 variants have spread within the country.

Results

Our findings indicate bidirectional international transmission, with Italy transitioning between importing and exporting the virus. Italy experienced four distinct epidemic waves, each associated with a significant reduction in fatalities from 2021 to 2023. These waves were primarily driven by the emergence of VOCs such as Alpha, Delta, and Omicron, which were reflected in observed transmission dynamics and effectiveness of public health measures.

Conclusions

The changing patterns of viral spread and variant prevalence throughout Italy's pandemic response underscore the continued importance of flexible public health strategies and genomic surveillance, both of which are crucial for tracking the evolution of variants and adapting control measures effectively to ensure preparedness for future outbreaks.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Infectious Diseases 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

18.90

自引率

2.40%

发文量

1020

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： International Journal of Infectious Diseases (IJID) Publisher: International Society for Infectious Diseases Publication Frequency: Monthly Type: Peer-reviewed, Open Access Scope: Publishes original clinical and laboratory-based research. Reports clinical trials, reviews, and some case reports. Focuses on epidemiology, clinical diagnosis, treatment, and control of infectious diseases. Emphasizes diseases common in under-resourced countries.