Is the Regime Shift in Gulf Stream Warm Core Rings Detected by Satellite Altimetry? An Inter-Comparison of Eddy Identification and Tracking Products

Downstream of Cape Hatteras, the vigorously meandering Gulf Stream forms anticyclonic warm core rings (WCRs) that carry warm Gulf Stream and Sargasso Sea waters into the cooler, fresher Slope Sea, and forms cyclonic cold core rings (CCRs) that carry Slope Sea waters into the Sargasso Sea. The Northwest Atlantic shelf and open ocean off the U.S. East Coast have experienced dramatic changes in ocean circulation and water properties in recent years, with significant consequences for marine ecosystems and coastal communities. Some of these changes may be related to a reported regime shift in the number of WCRs formed annually, with a doubling of WCRs shed after 2000. Since the regime shift was detected using a regional eddy-tracking product, primarily based on sea surface temperatures and relies on analyst skill, we examine three global eddy-tracking products as an automated and potentially more objective way to detect changes in Gulf Stream rings. Currently, global products rely on altimeter-measured sea surface height (SSH), with WCRs registering as sea surface highs and CCRs as lows. To identify eddies, these products use either SSH contours or a Lagrangian approach, with particles seeded in satellite-based surface geostrophic velocity fields. This study confirms the three global products are not well suited for statistical analysis of Gulf Stream rings and suggests that automated WCR identification and tracking comes at the price of accurate identification and tracking. Furthermore, a shift to a higher energy state is detected in the Northwest Atlantic, which coincides with the regime shift in WCRs.