COVID-19, school closures and the retreat from educational aspirations.

Introduction: As a shared external shock, the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) impacted health and well-being around the world. Mitigation strategies employed in many locations included school closures and travel restrictions. These strategies directly impacted educational access and opportunities and created economic stressors for families. This study examines how these direct impacts also altered educational aspirations for children and adolescents, an important predictor of educational attainment.

Method: We estimate multilevel regression models using two waves of data, collected in 2017-18 and 2020-21, from 1294 children and adolescents (Mean age = 13.1, SD = 2.8; 50.3% female) in Jalisco, Mexico, and 2201 children and adolescents (Mean age = 14.7, SD = 2.6; 49.1% female) in Chitwan Nepal. We examine changes in educational aspirations between the two waves (pre- and post-COVID-19 onset).

Results: Initial aspirations are positively associated with household wealth, caregiver education, and prior commitment to education. Multilevel regression models predicting changes in educational aspirations demonstrate these resources are important for maintaining high educational aspirations. But children and adolescents in households that experienced more economic loss following the external shock of the pandemic had lowered aspirations over time.

Conclusions: Disruptions to schooling and economic shocks to households curtailed educational aspirations among children and adolescents in a similar way in two disparate settings. These results raise concerns about the educational attainment of children in the face of external shocks and the possibility that educational progress will stall in low resourced environments among the most vulnerable youth.