{"title":"COVID-19 流行病的基本繁殖数 (R0)、倍增时间和日增长率：回声学研究。","authors":"Roya Karimi, Mehrdad Farrokhi, Neda Izadi, Hadis Ghajari, Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani, Farid Najafi, Ebrahim Shakiba, Manoochehr Karami, Masoud Shojaeian, Ghobad Moradi, Ebrahim Ghaderi, Elham Nouri, Ali Ahmadi, Abdollah Mohammadian Hafshejani, Majid Sartipi, Alireza Zali, Ayad Bahadori Monfared, Raha Davatgar, Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari","doi":"10.22037/aaem.v12i1.2376","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>In infectious diseases, there are essential indices used to describe the disease state. In this study, we estimated the basic reproduction number, R0, peak level, doubling time, and daily growth rate of COVID-19.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This ecological study was conducted in 5 provinces of Iran. The daily numbers of new COVID-19 cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 were used to determine the basic reproduction number (R0), peak date, doubling time, and daily growth rates in all five provinces. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to estimate epidemiological parameters.</p><p><strong>Result: </strong>The highest and lowest number of deaths were observed in Hamedan (657 deaths) and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari (54 deaths) provinces, respectively. The doubling time of confirmed cases in Kermanshah and Hamedan ranged widely from 18.59 days (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.38, 20) to 76.66 days (95% CI: 56.36, 119.78). In addition, the highest daily growth rates of confirmed cases were observed in Kermanshah (0.037, 95% CI: 0.034, 0.039) and Sistan and Baluchestan (0.032, 95% CI: 0.030, 0.034) provinces.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>In light of our findings, it is imperative to tailor containment strategies to the unique epidemiological profiles of each region in order to effectively mitigate the spread and impact of COVID-19. The wide variation in doubling times underscores the importance of flexibility in public health responses. By adapting measures to local conditions, we can better address the evolving dynamics of the pandemic and safeguard the well-being of communities.</p>","PeriodicalId":8146,"journal":{"name":"Archives of Academic Emergency Medicine","volume":"12 1","pages":"e66"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11407535/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Basic Reproduction Number (R0), Doubling Time, and Daily Growth Rate of the COVID-19 Epidemic: An Echological Study.\",\"authors\":\"Roya Karimi, Mehrdad Farrokhi, Neda Izadi, Hadis Ghajari, Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani, Farid Najafi, Ebrahim Shakiba, Manoochehr Karami, Masoud Shojaeian, Ghobad Moradi, Ebrahim Ghaderi, Elham Nouri, Ali Ahmadi, Abdollah Mohammadian Hafshejani, Majid Sartipi, Alireza Zali, Ayad Bahadori Monfared, Raha Davatgar, Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari\",\"doi\":\"10.22037/aaem.v12i1.2376\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>In infectious diseases, there are essential indices used to describe the disease state. In this study, we estimated the basic reproduction number, R0, peak level, doubling time, and daily growth rate of COVID-19.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This ecological study was conducted in 5 provinces of Iran. The daily numbers of new COVID-19 cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 were used to determine the basic reproduction number (R0), peak date, doubling time, and daily growth rates in all five provinces. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to estimate epidemiological parameters.</p><p><strong>Result: </strong>The highest and lowest number of deaths were observed in Hamedan (657 deaths) and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari (54 deaths) provinces, respectively. The doubling time of confirmed cases in Kermanshah and Hamedan ranged widely from 18.59 days (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.38, 20) to 76.66 days (95% CI: 56.36, 119.78). In addition, the highest daily growth rates of confirmed cases were observed in Kermanshah (0.037, 95% CI: 0.034, 0.039) and Sistan and Baluchestan (0.032, 95% CI: 0.030, 0.034) provinces.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>In light of our findings, it is imperative to tailor containment strategies to the unique epidemiological profiles of each region in order to effectively mitigate the spread and impact of COVID-19. The wide variation in doubling times underscores the importance of flexibility in public health responses. By adapting measures to local conditions, we can better address the evolving dynamics of the pandemic and safeguard the well-being of communities.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":8146,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Archives of Academic Emergency Medicine\",\"volume\":\"12 1\",\"pages\":\"e66\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11407535/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Archives of Academic Emergency Medicine\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.22037/aaem.v12i1.2376\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"EMERGENCY MEDICINE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Archives of Academic Emergency Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.22037/aaem.v12i1.2376","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"EMERGENCY MEDICINE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Basic Reproduction Number (R0), Doubling Time, and Daily Growth Rate of the COVID-19 Epidemic: An Echological Study.
Introduction: In infectious diseases, there are essential indices used to describe the disease state. In this study, we estimated the basic reproduction number, R0, peak level, doubling time, and daily growth rate of COVID-19.
Methods: This ecological study was conducted in 5 provinces of Iran. The daily numbers of new COVID-19 cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 were used to determine the basic reproduction number (R0), peak date, doubling time, and daily growth rates in all five provinces. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to estimate epidemiological parameters.
Result: The highest and lowest number of deaths were observed in Hamedan (657 deaths) and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari (54 deaths) provinces, respectively. The doubling time of confirmed cases in Kermanshah and Hamedan ranged widely from 18.59 days (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.38, 20) to 76.66 days (95% CI: 56.36, 119.78). In addition, the highest daily growth rates of confirmed cases were observed in Kermanshah (0.037, 95% CI: 0.034, 0.039) and Sistan and Baluchestan (0.032, 95% CI: 0.030, 0.034) provinces.
Conclusion: In light of our findings, it is imperative to tailor containment strategies to the unique epidemiological profiles of each region in order to effectively mitigate the spread and impact of COVID-19. The wide variation in doubling times underscores the importance of flexibility in public health responses. By adapting measures to local conditions, we can better address the evolving dynamics of the pandemic and safeguard the well-being of communities.
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