Durum wheat productivity today and tomorrow: A review of influencing factors and climate change effects

Durum wheat is a crucial staple crop in many arid and semi-arid regions around the world, significantly contributing to local food security. This review paper aims to explore the current status of durum wheat productivity and the potential impacts of future climatic conditions on its cultivation. Various drivers and constraints affecting durum wheat yield are examined, including biotic and abiotic stressors, CO₂ concentrations and agronomic practices. Drought and heat stress were identified as the primary yield limiting factors. Furthermore, the influence of climate change on durum wheat is evaluated, focusing on altered precipitation patterns, temperature extremes, and increased atmospheric CO₂ levels. Most prominent quantification methods for climate change impact on yields are explored. The paper provides a summary of the current state of research, which reveals some contradictory results for future durum wheat yields. On the one hand, significant increases in productivity due to the fertilization effect of higher CO₂ levels are predicted. On the other hand, the crop failures are foreseen as consequence of elevated heat and drought stress as part of climate change. Overall, this paper underlines the importance of understanding the complex interactions between climate change and durum wheat productivity and highlights the urgency to explore sustainable adaptation strategies to ensure future food security.