气候变异和血清型竞争推动新加坡登革热疫情动态发展

Emilie Finch, Adam J Kucharski, Shuzhen Sim, Lee Ching Ng, Rachel Lowe
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引用次数: 0

摘要

登革热对全球健康的威胁迅速增加,东南亚是受影响最严重的地区之一。气候信息预警系统有助于减轻登革热疫情爆发的影响;然而,如何在足够的准备时间内预测大规模登革热疫情以指导干预措施仍是一项挑战。在这项工作中,我们利用 20 多年的每周病例数据,量化了气候变异和血清型竞争在新加坡登革热风险中的作用。我们将这些发现整合到一个预警系统框架中,该框架能够提前 2 个月预测登革热疫情。与季节性基线相比,气候信息模型的预测能力提高了 54%,而包含额外血清型信息的预测能力提高了 60%,有助于解释年际变化。通过将血清型竞争作为人群免疫力的替代物,这项工作推动了登革热预测领域的发展,并证明了长期病毒监测的价值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climate variation and serotype competition drive dengue outbreak dynamics in Singapore
Dengue poses a rapidly increasing threat to global health, with Southeast Asia as one of the worst affected regions. Climate-informed early warning systems can help to mitigate the impact of outbreaks; however, prediction of large outbreaks with sufficient lead time to guide interventions remains a challenge. In this work, we quantify the role of climatic variation and serotype competition in shaping dengue risk in Singapore using over 20 years of weekly case data. We integrated these findings into an early warning system framework able to predict dengue outbreaks up to 2 months ahead. While a climate-informed model improved predictive power by 54% compared to a seasonal baseline, including additional serotype information increased predictive performance to 60%, helping to explain interannual variation. By incorporating serotype competition as a proxy for population immunity, this work advances the field of dengue prediction and demonstrates the value of long-term virus surveillance.
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