中东国家和土耳其的军费开支是否趋同？全面的单位根检验分析

Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI:10.1111/dome.12340

Gulbahar Ucler, Serife Ozsahin

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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于内部和外部的紧张局势，中东是一个长期不安全的地区。这些紧张局势和不安全因素使中东成为世界上军事装备最发达的地区之一。本研究采用综合单位根分析方法，对 10 个选定的中东国家军事负担的随机收敛性进行了研究。使用传统、结构断裂、非线性和基于傅立叶的单位根检验对每个国家从 1977 年到 2020 年的随机收敛性进行了研究。实证结果提供了巴林、沙特阿拉伯和阿曼与地区平均水平趋同的有力证据。以色列、埃及、科威特、黎巴嫩和土耳其也有一些趋同的证据。然而，伊朗和约旦存在趋同的证据不足。

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Is military spending converging across Middle Eastern countries? A comprehensive unit root test analysis 中东国家和土耳其的军费开支是否趋同？综合单位根检验分析 ¿Está convergiendo el gasto militar entre los países de oriente medio y Turquía? Un análisis exhaustivo de la prueba de raíz unitaria

The Middle East is a region of chronic insecurity due to internal and external tensions. These tensions and insecurity have made the Middle East one of the world's leading regions in military armaments. This study investigates the stochastic convergence of military burden in 10 selected Middle Eastern countries using comprehensive unit root analysis. Stochastic convergence for each country from 1977 to 2020 is examined using conventional, structural break, nonlinear, and Fourier-based unit root tests. Empirical results provide strong evidence of convergence with regional averages in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. There is also some evidence of convergence in the case of Israel, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Turkiye. However, evidence for the existence of convergence in Iran and Jordan is weak.

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