{"title":"恢复伊朗核协议的谈判","authors":"Wyn Rees, Hossein Salimian Rizi","doi":"10.1111/mepo.12765","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>There have been protracted negotiations in Vienna to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or nuclear deal, that Iran signed in 2015 but was suspended by the withdrawal of the United States four years later. This article argues that two factors account for the failure to renew the JCPOA. One is the 2021 change of presidency in Iran from the reformist Hassan Rouhani to the conservative Ebrahim Raisi. The other is the transformed international environment that provided Iran with opportunities to align with China and Russia. While it suited Iran to continue the nuclear talks to minimize the risk of more punitive actions, Tehran has recalculated its interests and taken a hard line on a potential new deal. The process has grown more complicated with Israel's war in Gaza, the conflict's possible expansion across the region, and the election of a new Iranian president. The analysis concludes that Iran is unlikely to return to the JCPOA.</p>","PeriodicalId":46060,"journal":{"name":"Middle East Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Negotiating the Restoration Of the Iran Nuclear Deal\",\"authors\":\"Wyn Rees, Hossein Salimian Rizi\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/mepo.12765\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>There have been protracted negotiations in Vienna to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or nuclear deal, that Iran signed in 2015 but was suspended by the withdrawal of the United States four years later. This article argues that two factors account for the failure to renew the JCPOA. One is the 2021 change of presidency in Iran from the reformist Hassan Rouhani to the conservative Ebrahim Raisi. The other is the transformed international environment that provided Iran with opportunities to align with China and Russia. While it suited Iran to continue the nuclear talks to minimize the risk of more punitive actions, Tehran has recalculated its interests and taken a hard line on a potential new deal. The process has grown more complicated with Israel's war in Gaza, the conflict's possible expansion across the region, and the election of a new Iranian president. The analysis concludes that Iran is unlikely to return to the JCPOA.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":46060,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Middle East Policy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Middle East Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mepo.12765\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"AREA STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Middle East Policy","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mepo.12765","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"AREA STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Negotiating the Restoration Of the Iran Nuclear Deal
There have been protracted negotiations in Vienna to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or nuclear deal, that Iran signed in 2015 but was suspended by the withdrawal of the United States four years later. This article argues that two factors account for the failure to renew the JCPOA. One is the 2021 change of presidency in Iran from the reformist Hassan Rouhani to the conservative Ebrahim Raisi. The other is the transformed international environment that provided Iran with opportunities to align with China and Russia. While it suited Iran to continue the nuclear talks to minimize the risk of more punitive actions, Tehran has recalculated its interests and taken a hard line on a potential new deal. The process has grown more complicated with Israel's war in Gaza, the conflict's possible expansion across the region, and the election of a new Iranian president. The analysis concludes that Iran is unlikely to return to the JCPOA.
期刊介绍：
The most frequently cited journal on the Middle East region in the field of international affairs, Middle East Policy has been engaging thoughtful minds for more than 25 years. Since its inception in 1982, the journal has been recognized as a valuable addition to the Washington-based policy discussion. Middle East Policy provides an influential forum for a wide range of views on U.S. interests in the region and the value of the policies that are supposed to promote them.
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