The impact of first and further decompensation in patients with metabolic-dysfunction associated compensated advanced chronic liver disease

Background & Aim

The first and further decompensation mark the natural history and the risk of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. We assessed the cumulative incidence of first and further (acute and non-acute) decompensation and evaluated their impact on both liver-related death (LR-D) in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).

Methods

Consecutive patients with clinical (LSM>10 kPa) or biopsy-proven (F3-F4 fibrosis) diagnosis of cACLD due to MASLD were included. First and further decompensation were defined according to Baveno VII criteria. The acute (AD) and non-acute (NAD)[MOU1] [VW(2] presentation of the decompensation was also evaluated. Competing risk analysis and cumulative incidence functions (CIF) [MOU3] were assessed by Fine and Gray. Cause-specific Cox models with baseline and time-dependent variables were applied. Multistate model was built to better assess the clinical course of cACLD due to MASLD.

Results

The cumulative incidence of the first decompensation was 3.5% at 5 years, increasing 20-times the risk of LR-D at cause-specific Cox analysis; the cumulative incidence of further decompensation was 44% at 5 years among patients with first decompensation, additionally increasing 1.6-times the risk of LR-D. Ascites, followed by variceal bleeding, were the most common events in both first and further decompensation. The impact of AD and NAD as both first or further event on LR-D was similar[MOU4] . Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) further independently increased the risk of LR-D of 3.2-times and 1.6-times, respectively, in the whole cohort of cACLD due to MASLD and in those who experienced first decompensation.

Conclusions

The first and further decompensations (AD and NAD) represent tipping points in the clinical course of patients with cACLD due to MASLD, increasing 20-times and additionally 1.6-times the risk of LR-D. HCC is an independent predictor of LR-D in patients with cACLD due to MASLD, resulting in an additional risk of LR-D when associated with both first and further decompensation.