基于故障树和多态模糊贝叶斯网络的水下浮动隧道安全风险评估

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为评估海洋环境下水下浮动隧道(SFT)在运营过程中的全局安全风险,为风险控制提供依据,提出了一种考虑复杂致灾因素的多态模糊贝叶斯网络(MFBN)安全风险评估方法。建立了 SFT 安全风险的故障树模型,以分析全局风险与结构部件和环境负荷等影响因素之间的因果关系。对于根节点,通过专家知识获得每个状态的模糊概率。提出了一种改进的相似性聚合方法来整合专家意见,以减轻重大选项差异的影响。对于非根节点,采用 Leaky Noisy-Max 模型计算 SFT 中的复杂条件概率。通过 MFBN 的推理,可以确定各种安全风险状态和关键风险因素的概率。此外,还开发了一种风险预测方法,该方法结合了领域专家的意见,并利用 BN 随新信息更新节点概率的能力,预测波浪和电流负载下 SFT 的安全风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Security risk assessment of submerged floating tunnel based on fault tree and multistate fuzzy Bayesian network

To assess the global security risks of the submerged floating tunnel (SFT) in marine environments during operation and provide a basis for risk control, a security risk assessment method using a multistate fuzzy Bayesian network (MFBN) considering complex disaster-inducing factors is proposed. A fault tree model of SFT security risk is established to analyze the causal relationships between global risk and influence factors such as structural components and environmental loads. For root nodes, fuzzy probabilities for each state are obtained through expert knowledge. An improved similarity aggregation method is proposed to integrate expert opinions, mitigating the impact of significant option discrepancies. For non-root nodes, the Leaky Noisy-Max model is used to calculate complex conditional probabilities within the SFT. The probabilities of various security risk states and key risk factors could be determined through reasoning by MFBN. Additionally, a risk prediction method that incorporates domain expert opinions and leverages the BN's ability of updating node probabilities with new information was developed to forecast the security risks of the SFT under wave and current loads.

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来源期刊
Ocean & Coastal Management
Ocean & Coastal Management 环境科学-海洋学
CiteScore
8.50
自引率
15.20%
发文量
321
审稿时长
60 days
期刊介绍: Ocean & Coastal Management is the leading international journal dedicated to the study of all aspects of ocean and coastal management from the global to local levels. We publish rigorously peer-reviewed manuscripts from all disciplines, and inter-/trans-disciplinary and co-designed research, but all submissions must make clear the relevance to management and/or governance issues relevant to the sustainable development and conservation of oceans and coasts. Comparative studies (from sub-national to trans-national cases, and other management / policy arenas) are encouraged, as are studies that critically assess current management practices and governance approaches. Submissions involving robust analysis, development of theory, and improvement of management practice are especially welcome.
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