A study on the impact of heritage protection on urban carbon emissions

A major goal of current international urban development and construction is to lower carbon emissions. Synergies exist between the preservation of historic cities and the development of low-carbon cities; however, the relationship between preservation of historic cities and carbon emissions remains unclear. This study focuses on the cities in the “Yellow-Canal-Yangtze” watershed community, which includes the Yellow River Basin, Yangtze River Basin, and the Grand Canal region, and aims to verify the differences in CO₂ emissions (CE) between historic and non-historic cities through multiple comparisons after ANOVA. Additionally, Ridge Regression was used to determine the impact and dimensions of the relevant variables associated with the preservation of historic cities on CE. Combined with national development goals, this study predicts changes in the CE of historic city preservation under different scenarios. This study found significant differences between historic and non-historic cities, as the total CE of historic cities is 2.42 times higher than that of non-historic cities. The dimension with the largest difference was the CE related to transportation, with aviation emissions of historic cities reaching 15.22 times higher than that of non-historic cities. Although the preservation of historic cities has led to an overall increase in the CE, there is significant potential for CE reduction in land use, transportation infrastructure, and tourism development related to historic city preservation. In the future, historic cities can contribute to China’s carbon neutrality and the United Nation’s development goals through the creation of larger historical preservation areas, more convenient public transportation, and more vibrant tourism.