首席执行官的负面职业经历对管理层悲观预测的影响

Eunice S. Khoo, Louise Y. Lu, Zihang Peng
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了首席执行官过去的公司困境经历如何影响其随后的预测行为。我们发现,在另一家公司担任非首席执行官职位时经历过困境的首席执行官,在成为现任公司的首席执行官后,会发布更悲观的管理层盈利预测。这种经历对首席执行官预测行为的影响在发生频率较高或最近发生的情况下更为明显。对于过于自信和经验丰富的首席执行官来说,困境经历的影响会有所减轻,但对于业绩不佳和不确定性较高的公司来说,这种影响会被放大。我们的研究结果表明,经历过公司困境的首席执行官在预测未来收益时可能会过于谨慎。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The effect of CEO adverse professional experience on management forecast pessimism
We examine how CEOs' past experiences of corporate distress affect their subsequent forecast behaviour. We find that CEOs who experienced distress in a non‐CEO position at another firm issue more pessimistic management earnings forecasts after becoming CEO at their current firm. The effect of such experiences on CEOs' forecasting behaviour is more pronounced when these have occurred more frequently or recently. The effect of distress experiences is mitigated for overconfident and experienced CEOs, but amplified in firms with poor performance and high uncertainty. Our findings suggest that CEOs who experienced corporate distress could be overly cautious when forecasting future earnings.
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