Role of Government Policies in Smoothing Borrowers’ Spending during Stress: Evidence from UK Mortgage Moratoria

We use UK transaction-level data to study whether nationwide mortgage moratoria, or payment holidays (PH), can act as a mechanism for smoothing mortgagors’ consumption following negative aggregate shocks. We find that both borrowers with pre-existing financial vulnerabilities and with stronger balance sheets, including buy-to-let investors, had an incentive to access the policy. This is not surprising since PH were available to all mortgagors and without affecting households’ credit risk scores. Using a quasi-experimental DiD research design based on eligibility, we find that the PH allowed liquidity-constrained households to smooth consumption during the pandemic relative to the control group. By contrast, other mortgagors did not seem to increase consumption relative to the control group, preferring to save the liquidity relief provided by PH. Overall, we find evidence that PH were able to support consumption of more vulnerable households, who are more likely to pull away from consumption during stress periods.