根据荷载/非荷载响应比和外向长波辐射的耦合特性确定大地震前的应力状态

IF 2 3区地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Frontiers in Earth Science Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI:10.3389/feart.2024.1433395

Yu Lei, Li Jianyong, Yu Chen, Zhang Haizhen, Hong Dequan, Ma Weiyu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

荷载/卸载反应比（LURR）是一种基于岩石应力-应变关系动态演化的地震预测方法。采用贝尼奥夫应变作为反应指标，对 2021 年 5 月 22 日青海玛多发生 Ms7.4 级地震前震中及周边 400 公里范围内的 LURR 异常值进行了深入分析。分析表明，LURR 值在地震发生前 1 个月达到峰值，随后在半个月内下降，表明地震孕育区的岩石介质已接近屈服阶段的末期。利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）卫星的出射长波辐射（OLR）数据进行了进一步调查，研究了高值下降后（5 月 14 日至 25 日）地面长波辐射值的短期和临近异常演变。结果表明，从空间上看，震前仅在震中北部地区观测到明显而持续的地面长波辐射异常，而且这些异常呈现出向震中扩展的趋势。从时间上看，整个异常演变过程可分为六个阶段：初始变暖、异常扩展、峰值强度、异常减弱、地震发生和异常消失。为了验证这一结论，我们分析了 2021 年 5 月 21 日云南漾濞 Ms6.4 地震发生前震中及周边 300 公里范围内的 LURR 和 OLR 时空演变特征，也发现了类似的规律。这些结果表明，LURR 值在下降前的高值可能标志着岩石介质屈服阶段的结束，OLR 数据可以在一定程度上反映处于临界状态的活动断层沿线构造应力的积累状况。全面研究这两个物理参数在震前的异常演变特征，不仅有利于长期预报与短期预报的衔接，而且对更准确地评估地震活动趋势具有重要意义。

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Determination of stress state based on coupling characteristics of load/unload response ratio and outgoing longwave radiation before large earthquakes

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is a seismic prediction method based on the dynamic evolution of the stress-strain relationship of rocks. By adopting Benioff strain as the response indicator, an in-depth analysis was conducted on the LURR anomalies within 400 km of the epicenter and its surrounding areas before the Ms7.4 earthquake in Madoi, Qinghai Province, on 22 May 2021. The analysis revealed that the LURR value peaked 1 month before the earthquake and then declined within half a month, indicating that the rock medium in the seismic gestation area was approaching the end of its yielding phase. Further investigation using the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite was conducted to study the short-term and imminent anomalous evolution of ground longwave radiation values after the high values declined (from May 14 to 25). The results showed that, spatially, significant and continuous OLR anomalies were observed only in the northern area of the epicenter before the earthquake, and these anomalies exhibited a trend of expanding towards the epicenter. Temporally, the entire anomalous evolution process can be divided into six phases: initial warming, anomaly expansion, peak intensity, anomaly weakening, earthquake occurrence, and anomaly disappearance. To validate this finding, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of LURR and OLR within 300 km of the epicenter and its surrounding areas before the Ms6.4 earthquake in Yangbi, Yunnan Province, on 21 May 2021, were analyzed, and similar patterns were found. These results suggest that the high LURR value before its decline may mark the end of the rock medium’s yielding phase, and OLR data can reflect, to some extent, the state of tectonic stress accumulation along active faults in a critical condition. A comprehensive study of the anomalous evolution characteristics of these two physical parameters before the earthquake is not only conducive to the continuity from long-term to short-term forecasts but also of great significance for more accurately assessing the trend of seismic activity.

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来源期刊

Frontiers in Earth Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences

CiteScore

3.50

自引率

10.30%

发文量

2076

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Frontiers in Earth Science is an open-access journal that aims to bring together and publish on a single platform the best research dedicated to our planet. This platform hosts the rapidly growing and continuously expanding domains in Earth Science, involving the lithosphere (including the geosciences spectrum), the hydrosphere (including marine geosciences and hydrology, complementing the existing Frontiers journal on Marine Science) and the atmosphere (including meteorology and climatology). As such, Frontiers in Earth Science focuses on the countless processes operating within and among the major spheres constituting our planet. In turn, the understanding of these processes provides the theoretical background to better use the available resources and to face the major environmental challenges (including earthquakes, tsunamis, eruptions, floods, landslides, climate changes, extreme meteorological events): this is where interdependent processes meet, requiring a holistic view to better live on and with our planet. The journal welcomes outstanding contributions in any domain of Earth Science. The open-access model developed by Frontiers offers a fast, efficient, timely and dynamic alternative to traditional publication formats. The journal has 20 specialty sections at the first tier, each acting as an independent journal with a full editorial board. The traditional peer-review process is adapted to guarantee fairness and efficiency using a thorough paperless process, with real-time author-reviewer-editor interactions, collaborative reviewer mandates to maximize quality, and reviewer disclosure after article acceptance. While maintaining a rigorous peer-review, this system allows for a process whereby accepted articles are published online on average 90 days after submission. General Commentary articles as well as Book Reviews in Frontiers in Earth Science are only accepted upon invitation.