Marcos Vinícius da Silva , Jhon Lennon Bezerra da Silva , Maria Beatriz Ferreira , Lizandra de Barros de Sousa , Abelardo Antônio de Assunção Montenegro , Jorge Manuel Guieiro Pereira Isidoro , Héliton Pandorfi , José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior , Helena Maria Neto Paixão Vazquez Fernandez , Fernando Miguel Granja-Martins , Alexandre Maniçoba da Rosa Ferraz Jardim , Thieres George Freire da Silva , Ada Liz Coronel Canata , Ivonete Alves Bakke , Olaf Andreas Bakke , Arliston Pereira Leite , Mayara Maria de Lima Pessoa , Antônio Lucineudo de Oliveira Freire , Rafael dos Santos Gonçalves , Henrique Fonseca Elias de Oliveira , Guilherme Ferreira de Brito
{"title":"通过标准化降水指数对巴西东北部南海岸的降雨模式和干旱月度多尺度特征进行地质统计建模","authors":"Marcos Vinícius da Silva , Jhon Lennon Bezerra da Silva , Maria Beatriz Ferreira , Lizandra de Barros de Sousa , Abelardo Antônio de Assunção Montenegro , Jorge Manuel Guieiro Pereira Isidoro , Héliton Pandorfi , José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior , Helena Maria Neto Paixão Vazquez Fernandez , Fernando Miguel Granja-Martins , Alexandre Maniçoba da Rosa Ferraz Jardim , Thieres George Freire da Silva , Ada Liz Coronel Canata , Ivonete Alves Bakke , Olaf Andreas Bakke , Arliston Pereira Leite , Mayara Maria de Lima Pessoa , Antônio Lucineudo de Oliveira Freire , Rafael dos Santos Gonçalves , Henrique Fonseca Elias de Oliveira , Guilherme Ferreira de Brito","doi":"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107668","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Variations in rainfall patterns in the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) are high and multiscalar, increasing susceptibility to extreme drought and/or flood events. The objective of this study was to characterize rainfall patterns and monthly dry-wet periods using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) from 1990 to 2019 in the South Coast of NEB, utilizing geostatistical interpolation methods. The study was based on a climatological dataset from the coastal region of the state of Bahia, collected from 112 weather stations. A map projecting aquifer in the study area was established, and SPI was determined. The data were subjected to descriptive, multivariate, and geostatistical statistics. Hydrogeological and hydrochemical maps were prepared. The months of October to April are characterized as rainy months (>300 mm). The coefficient of variation showed low standards due to atmospheric circulation systems. The Gaussian and exponential models presented the best fits (R<sup>2</sup> > 0.86) for rainfall and SPI data. The quality of groundwater in the study area ranges from excellent to good, except for the north center part of the study area, where the groundwater quality is poor. An alert is issued for the southern region of the Bahian coast regarding the safety of the local population, including the risk of landslides resulting from rain and floods.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8600,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Research","volume":"311 ","pages":"Article 107668"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Geostatistical modeling of the rainfall patterns and monthly multiscale characterization of drought in the South Coast of the Northeast Brazilian via Standardized Precipitation Index\",\"authors\":\"Marcos Vinícius da Silva , Jhon Lennon Bezerra da Silva , Maria Beatriz Ferreira , Lizandra de Barros de Sousa , Abelardo Antônio de Assunção Montenegro , Jorge Manuel Guieiro Pereira Isidoro , Héliton Pandorfi , José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior , Helena Maria Neto Paixão Vazquez Fernandez , Fernando Miguel Granja-Martins , Alexandre Maniçoba da Rosa Ferraz Jardim , Thieres George Freire da Silva , Ada Liz Coronel Canata , Ivonete Alves Bakke , Olaf Andreas Bakke , Arliston Pereira Leite , Mayara Maria de Lima Pessoa , Antônio Lucineudo de Oliveira Freire , Rafael dos Santos Gonçalves , Henrique Fonseca Elias de Oliveira , Guilherme Ferreira de Brito\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107668\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Variations in rainfall patterns in the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) are high and multiscalar, increasing susceptibility to extreme drought and/or flood events. The objective of this study was to characterize rainfall patterns and monthly dry-wet periods using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) from 1990 to 2019 in the South Coast of NEB, utilizing geostatistical interpolation methods. The study was based on a climatological dataset from the coastal region of the state of Bahia, collected from 112 weather stations. A map projecting aquifer in the study area was established, and SPI was determined. The data were subjected to descriptive, multivariate, and geostatistical statistics. Hydrogeological and hydrochemical maps were prepared. The months of October to April are characterized as rainy months (>300 mm). The coefficient of variation showed low standards due to atmospheric circulation systems. The Gaussian and exponential models presented the best fits (R<sup>2</sup> > 0.86) for rainfall and SPI data. The quality of groundwater in the study area ranges from excellent to good, except for the north center part of the study area, where the groundwater quality is poor. An alert is issued for the southern region of the Bahian coast regarding the safety of the local population, including the risk of landslides resulting from rain and floods.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":8600,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Atmospheric Research\",\"volume\":\"311 \",\"pages\":\"Article 107668\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Atmospheric Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809524004502\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Atmospheric Research","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809524004502","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Geostatistical modeling of the rainfall patterns and monthly multiscale characterization of drought in the South Coast of the Northeast Brazilian via Standardized Precipitation Index
Variations in rainfall patterns in the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) are high and multiscalar, increasing susceptibility to extreme drought and/or flood events. The objective of this study was to characterize rainfall patterns and monthly dry-wet periods using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) from 1990 to 2019 in the South Coast of NEB, utilizing geostatistical interpolation methods. The study was based on a climatological dataset from the coastal region of the state of Bahia, collected from 112 weather stations. A map projecting aquifer in the study area was established, and SPI was determined. The data were subjected to descriptive, multivariate, and geostatistical statistics. Hydrogeological and hydrochemical maps were prepared. The months of October to April are characterized as rainy months (>300 mm). The coefficient of variation showed low standards due to atmospheric circulation systems. The Gaussian and exponential models presented the best fits (R2 > 0.86) for rainfall and SPI data. The quality of groundwater in the study area ranges from excellent to good, except for the north center part of the study area, where the groundwater quality is poor. An alert is issued for the southern region of the Bahian coast regarding the safety of the local population, including the risk of landslides resulting from rain and floods.
期刊介绍：
The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.
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