Estimating the expansion and reduction of agricultural extent in Egypt using Landsat time series

Increasing population and the consequent rise in the demand for food and water resources pose significant challenges for the future of agriculture in Egypt. Rapid large-scale agricultural expansion has occurred in the country to meet the growing demand, but agricultural loss from urban infringement and field abandonment remains prevalent. Documenting the full spectrum of changes within Egypt’s agricultural systems is crucial for developing effective land-use policies that improve food security. Here we map and estimate the areal extent of multiple types of agricultural change in Egypt (i.e., agricultural gain, agricultural abandonment, and agricultural loss from urban growth) by applying the Landsat-based detection of trends in disturbance and recovery (LandTrendr) algorithm, a widely used time series temporal segmentation algorithm. First, we used LandTrendr to identify areas of agricultural gain and loss throughout Egypt from 1987 to 2019. Second, we combined land-cover maps and the LandTrendr results to create a comprehensive land-cover change map. Lastly, we evaluated the accuracy of our findings and estimated per-class areas with quantified uncertainty using high-quality reference data. Our results reveal a notable expansion in Egypt’s agricultural land area. However, this growth is accompanied by the widespread loss of prime agricultural land, a consequence of urban development and agricultural abandonment. This study emphasizes the pressing need for the implementation of sustainable land-use policies in Egypt, particularly as climate change will exacerbate pressures on the agricultural sector in the future.