使用捕获-再捕获模型评估放养的麝香鱼种群的丰度和动态变化

IF 1.1 Q3 FISHERIES
Steven M. Shroyer, Nathaniel C. Hodgins
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了评估明尼苏达州福克斯湖放流计划的成功与否,在 2011-2013 年和 2015-2017 年产卵季节,用大型近岸诱捕网捕获了成年(总长度≥76 厘米)马斯喀尔贡鱼,并用被动集成转发器标签进行了单独标记;然后,在两个不同的时间尺度上对捕获-再捕获数据进行了分析。尽管进行了大量取样工作,但单季内的每日捕获记录仅支持半数年份的雌雄鱼封闭种群丰度估计值;估计值不精确,有证据表明某些年份存在陷阱害羞或违反短期封闭假设的情况。乔利-西伯模型在所有年份都支持每年相对精确的雌雄种群丰度估计值,以及年存活率、招募率和种群增长率估计值。Link-Barker Jolly-Seber 模型提供了种群增长率 λ ≈ 1 的估计值,表明由于成年雌性和成年雄性的表观年存活率分别为 0.80 和 0.89,人均年招募率仅为 0.15-0.20 左右,足以维持成年种群。POPAN Jolly-Seber 模型显示,在 385 公顷的湖泊中,每年约有 80 条成年雌鱼和 90-126 条成年雄鱼容易被捕获,每年每种性别约有 16-18 条鱼补充到成年种群中。这项研究说明了利用多年数据的开放种群模型来评估低密度、长寿命物种的丰度和种群动态的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Use of capture–recapture models to evaluate abundance and dynamics of a stocked Muskellunge population

Use of capture–recapture models to evaluate abundance and dynamics of a stocked Muskellunge population

To evaluate the success of a stocking program in Fox Lake, Minnesota, adult (≥76 cm total length) Muskellunge were captured with large nearshore trap nets and individually marked with passive integrated transponder tags during the 2011–2013 and 2015–2017 spawning seasons; then, capture–recapture data were analyzed at two different time scales. Despite substantial sampling effort, daily capture histories within a single season only supported closed-population abundance estimates for both sexes in half the years; estimates were imprecise, and there was evidence of trap shyness or violation of the short-term closure assumption in some years. Jolly–Seber models over all years supported relatively precise abundance estimates for both sexes every year, as well as estimates of annual survival, recruitment, and population growth rate. Link–Barker Jolly–Seber models provided estimates of population growth rate λ ≈ 1 indicating that per-capita annual recruitment rates of only about 0.15–0.20 were adequate to maintain the adult population given the high annual apparent survival rates of 0.80 for adult females and 0.89 for adult males. POPAN Jolly–Seber models revealed that about 80 adult females and 90–126 adult males were vulnerable to capture each year in the 385 ha lake, and about 16–18 fish of each sex recruited to the adult population annually. This study illustrates the importance of open-population models with multiple years of data to evaluate the abundance and population dynamics of a low-density, long-lived species.

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