Lenacapavir to prevent HIV infection: current prices versus estimated costs of production.

Background: Despite improvements in treatment and oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) access, 1.3 million people acquired HIV in 2022. Six-monthly lenacapavir PrEP could benefit tens of millions of people at high risk of infection. However, prices are currently up to $44 819 per person per year (pppy).

Objectives: We projected minimum lenacapavir pricing based on generic mass production and a Cost-Plus (Cost+) model.

Methods: Current active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) and key starting materials (KSMs) costs were obtained from export databases. The routes of synthesis (ROS) were analysed to project a cost of goods (COGs). Formulation, vials and profit margin costs were included using standardized algorithms and Cost+ pricing. We estimated prices with scale-up to supply 1 million then 10 million treatment-years, comparing this with national list prices.

Results: The lenacapavir API is currently exported from India for $64 480/kg on 1 kg scale. Based on the ROS and KSMs, API COGs of $25 000/kg and $10 000/kg are achievable for a committed demand of 1 million (2 million tonnes/annum of API) and 10 million treatment-years, respectively. Including formulation steps, injectable lenacapavir could be mass produced for approximately $94 pppy for 1 million and $41 for 10 million treatment-years, if voluntary licences are in place and competition between generic suppliers substantially improves. Greater scale-up with improvements in manufacturers' ROS could reduce prices further. Currently lenacapavir costs $25 395-44 819 pppy.

Conclusions: Lenacapavir could be mass produced for <$100 pppy at launch. Voluntary licensing and multiple suppliers are required to achieve these low prices. This mechanism is already in place for other antiretrovirals. To date, Gilead has not agreed lenacapavir voluntary licences with the Medicines Patent Pool.