The impact of accessibility changes on local development: A spatial approach

Throughout the years, the European Commission has allocated significant financial resources to road infrastructure construction, based on the belief that it would boost, socioeconomic development. However, literature evidence shows it is not consensual whether those investment policies will yield the expected outcomes. The main goal of this work is to shed light on where, and to what extent, accessibility changes due to road infrastructure construction might contribute to boost socioeconomic development at the municipal scale and regional cohesion, resorting to a case study consisting of the municipalities located in the Center Region of Portugal. The analysis uses spatial statistical methods and considers both space and time-lagged variables simultaneously, while controlling for endogeneity, spatial autocorrelation and demographic variables. Results show that accessibility changes induced by 20 years of road infrastructure construction had, in general, a positive impact on the development of the Center Region municipalities. However, depending on how accessibility is defined, negative impacts were also reported, as well as impacts that depend on geographic location. It is suggested that these latter impacts might be related to population migration within the Center Region. Concerning cohesion, no significant impacts of accessibility changes were found.