{"title":"怀疑论的性质、原因及对技术推广的影响","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123663","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Although skepticism is involved in technical change and scientific revolutions, surprisingly, the literature lacks a systematic analysis of the different forms, causes, and roles of skepticism in the diffusion of innovation.</p><p>This paper defines, identifies and models different types and causes of skepticism and their role in technology adoption. The paper identifies and studies: skepticism involving the characteristics of the technology and the producer; skepticism that induces to disbelieve market signal; and comparative skepticism i.e., skepticism produced by an unbalance relationship between the perceived complexity of the problem and the solution.</p><p>Among the theoretical findings of the paper and regarding skepticism on market signals, we found that the non-differentiability and oscillation of diffusion rates occur if individuals use the information on diffusion rates as proxy of the probability of technology working and modify this probability according to their skepticism.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016252400461X/pdfft?md5=c7464f907296b48c87b77b53aa8cd721&pid=1-s2.0-S004016252400461X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The nature, causes, and effects of skepticism on technology diffusion\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123663\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Although skepticism is involved in technical change and scientific revolutions, surprisingly, the literature lacks a systematic analysis of the different forms, causes, and roles of skepticism in the diffusion of innovation.</p><p>This paper defines, identifies and models different types and causes of skepticism and their role in technology adoption. The paper identifies and studies: skepticism involving the characteristics of the technology and the producer; skepticism that induces to disbelieve market signal; and comparative skepticism i.e., skepticism produced by an unbalance relationship between the perceived complexity of the problem and the solution.</p><p>Among the theoretical findings of the paper and regarding skepticism on market signals, we found that the non-differentiability and oscillation of diffusion rates occur if individuals use the information on diffusion rates as proxy of the probability of technology working and modify this probability according to their skepticism.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48454,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Technological Forecasting and Social Change\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":12.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016252400461X/pdfft?md5=c7464f907296b48c87b77b53aa8cd721&pid=1-s2.0-S004016252400461X-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Technological Forecasting and Social Change\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016252400461X\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016252400461X","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS","Score":null,"Total":0}
The nature, causes, and effects of skepticism on technology diffusion
Although skepticism is involved in technical change and scientific revolutions, surprisingly, the literature lacks a systematic analysis of the different forms, causes, and roles of skepticism in the diffusion of innovation.
This paper defines, identifies and models different types and causes of skepticism and their role in technology adoption. The paper identifies and studies: skepticism involving the characteristics of the technology and the producer; skepticism that induces to disbelieve market signal; and comparative skepticism i.e., skepticism produced by an unbalance relationship between the perceived complexity of the problem and the solution.
Among the theoretical findings of the paper and regarding skepticism on market signals, we found that the non-differentiability and oscillation of diffusion rates occur if individuals use the information on diffusion rates as proxy of the probability of technology working and modify this probability according to their skepticism.
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