Implications of landscape changes for ecosystem services and biodiversity: A national assessment in Ecuador

Ecuadorian ecosystems experience high pressure due to anthropogenic activities and climate change. Despite the need of regular monitoring of biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES), attempts to assess the current and future interdependencies of BES and landscape changes are still lacking. This study suggests a spatial assessment of the capacity of ecosystems/land use types to provide BES as status quo and its future development under scenarios of deforestation and climate change. To address data scarcity and improve legitimacy, spatial modeling was combined with participatory approaches. Specifically, changes in landscape pattern were simulated using a modeling platform that combines Geographic Information System (GIS) and Cellular Automaton (CA) modules. Experts in ecosystem conservation and management participated through surveys and workshops. Food, drinking water, service water, soil erosion control, water flow regulation, pollination/seed dispersal, regulation of macro climate, and landscape aesthetic/amenity were identified as the most relevant ES. Among the forest ecosystems, Páramo-related ecosystems were regarded to provide multiple ES with high capacities. Compared to the current status, the deforestation scenario showed to decrease most BES by 20–25 %, while increasing food provision by 5 %, as a trade-off. Regarding the climate change scenarios, the “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCP) by 2070 were simulated with an increase in temperature of 2 °C (RCP 2.6) and of 4 °C (RCP 6.0). RCP 6.0 showed more noticeable impact than RCP 2.6, which caused a decrease in most BES whereas an increase in food provision due to the possible expansion of arable land into higher altitudes. The results of the spatial assessment also indicated high and low potential areas for BES provision. Such information can support decision-making for BES management e.g., priority areas for actions. Furthermore, the applied spatially explicit assessment could be a starting point for a regular assessment of BES, which has not yet been implemented in Ecuador.