纠正党派对手的错误认识并不能有效治疗民主弊病。

IF 2.2 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
PNAS nexus Pub Date : 2024-08-20 eCollection Date: 2024-08-01 DOI:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae304
Nicholas C Dias, Laurits F Aarslew, Kristian Vrede Skaaning Frederiksen, Yphtach Lelkes, Lea Pradella, Sean J Westwood
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引用次数: 0

摘要

许多人警告说,美国正处于民主崩溃的边缘,因为党派敌意、对党派暴力的支持以及对不民主做法的支持正在上升。为了平息一些担忧,学者们提出了一些干预措施,利用信息来纠正公民对党派对手("党外")的误解。在本文中,我们提供的证据表明,这些干预措施的效果并不像人们希望的那样稳健或一致。首先,我们使用面板数据(n = 9,810 )表明,人们对党外人士的看法变化很大。这表明,这些看法并不牢固,因此不太可能成为敌对态度的重要原因。看法随时间的波动也表明,对许多人来说,任何修正的效果都可能在短短一个月内被淹没。其次,通过对 8 篇论文中 12 项研究的 67 次统计检验进行荟萃分析,我们发现目前有关教养效果的证据不足。第三,也是最后一点,在预先登记的实验中(n = 2,846),我们发现,改变美国人对党外人士的人口统计、政策态度和对不民主做法的支持的看法,对党派敌意、对党派暴力的支持或对不民主做法的支持没有一致的影响。这些观察结果表明,纠正对党外人士的错误认识并不是解决民主弊病的灵丹妙药。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Correcting misperceptions of partisan opponents is not effective at treating democratic ills.

Many warn that the United States is on the brink of democratic collapse, because partisan animosity, support for partisan violence, and support for undemocratic practices are on the rise. Quelling some fears, scholars have offered interventions that use messages to correct misperceptions about citizens' partisan opponents (the "out-party"). In this article, we provide evidence that the effects of these interventions are not as robust or consistent as hoped. First, we use panel data ( n = 9,810 ) to show that perceptions of the out-party are highly variable. This suggests that these perceptions are weakly held and thus unlikely to be a significant cause of hostile attitudes. The oscillation of perceptions over time also suggests that, for many, any effect of corrections would likely be overwhelmed in just 1 month. Second, in a meta-analysis of 67 statistical tests from 12 studies in eight papers, we document that current evidence on the efficacy of corrections is weak. Third and finally, in pre-registered experiments ( n = 2,846 ), we find that changing Americans' perceptions of the out-party's demographics, policy attitudes, and support for undemocratic practices has no consistent effect on partisan animosity, support for partisan violence, or support for undemocratic practices. These observations suggest that correcting misperceptions of the out-party is not a panacea for our democratic ills.

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CiteScore
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