基于倾向得分加权,识别驾驶员分心对交叉路口危险行动的因果效应。

IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Guopeng Zhang, Xianghong Hu, Nianyi Hu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

分心驾驶是对交通安全的一种威胁,会导致更多的交通事故。虽然以往已有研究探讨了驾驶员分心与危险驾驶行为之间的关系,但很少有研究能确定二者之间的因果关系。因此,本研究打算根据从碰撞报告抽样系统(2021-2022 年)中提取的碰撞数据,评估分心对交叉路口危险驾驶行为的因果影响。研究采用多叉对数模型来揭示导致驾驶员分心的因素。然后,采用倾向得分加权法平衡分心和非分心情况下的因素分布,以确定对危险行为的因果影响。结果表明:1)驾驶员分心的倾向与驾驶员的年龄、性别、车辆类型、限速、地区、天气和光线条件等因素相关;2)驾驶员分心会显著增加危险行为的发生概率,包括超速、闯红灯、不遵守停车标志、不礼让、跟车太紧;3)不同分心类型的因果效应表现出很大的差异性。研究结果有助于了解分心对特定碰撞风险的影响机制,并制定减少分心和危险驾驶行为的对策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Identifying the causal effects of driver distraction on hazardous actions at intersections based on propensity score weighting.

Distracted driving is a threat to traffic safety that can result in more traffic crashes. Although previous studies have been conducted to explore the relationship between driver distraction and hazardous driving actions, few studies are available to identify the causation between them. Thus, the study intended to evaluate the causal effects of distraction on hazardous driving actions at intersections based on the crash data extracted from the Crash Report Sampling System (2021-2022). The multinomial logit model was employed to reveal the factors contributing to driver distraction. Then, propensity score weighting was adopted to balance the factor distributions between distraction and non-distraction cases to identify the causal effects on hazardous actions. Results indicated that 1) the propensity of distraction is relevant to factors such as the driver's age, gender, vehicle type, speed limit, area, weather, and light condition, 2) driver distraction can significantly increase the probability of risky actions including speeding, running red lights, failing to obey stop signs, failing to yield, following too closely, and 3) the causal effects show great diversity for different distraction types. The findings serve to understand the influence mechanism of distraction on specific crash risks and develop countermeasures to reduce distraction and hazardous driving actions.

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来源期刊
International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
13.00%
发文量
48
期刊介绍: International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion (formerly Injury Control and Safety Promotion) publishes articles concerning all phases of injury control, including prevention, acute care and rehabilitation. Specifically, this journal will publish articles that for each type of injury: •describe the problem •analyse the causes and risk factors •discuss the design and evaluation of solutions •describe the implementation of effective programs and policies The journal encompasses all causes of fatal and non-fatal injury, including injuries related to: •transport •school and work •home and leisure activities •sport •violence and assault
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