Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae): Risks for Slovenian agriculture and feasibility of conducting pre-emptive risk assessment for some of its natural enemies

The invasive species Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), also known as fall armyworm (FAW), has emerged as a significant threat to agriculture globally, causing considerable economic losses and ecological disruptions. This paper examines the potential risk that FAW poses to Slovenian maize production. Using the maximum entropy algorithm, the climate suitability of Slovenia for FAW as well as for four of its parasitoids is calculated. The data used for the model calculations include species occurrence data, past climate data and regional climate projections for the 21st century. The climate suitability assessments in this study indicate an increasing risk of FAW occurrence in Slovenia in the 21st century, especially in regions with extensive maize cultivation. Projections under different climate change scenarios show that, the likelihood of FAW parasitoids thriving in Slovenia is particularly high, especially for Telenomus remus and Trichogramma pretiosum and overlaps with the regions with the largest areas of maize cultivation. In this context, pre-emptive biological control presents a promising approach. However, consideration of the full impacts associated with the introduction of non-native natural enemies is crucial, highlighting the need for further research and collaboration between stakeholders. Furthermore, this study lays the foundation for evidence-based decision making and emphasises the importance of integrated pest management strategies tailored to the Slovenian agricultural landscape.