Prospective market shaping: A discursive analysis of possible future autonomous vehicle markets

Investigating innovation ecosystems during their early stages of development is critical when considering how these nascent activities shape future technological direction and markets. This paper prospectively investigates how actors in these ecosystems discursively construct future markets, particularly when the past cannot be considered indictive of the future, as is the case of disruptive technologies, such as autonomous vehicles. An interpretative research approach is followed with discourse analysis that focused on discursive activities undertaken by our participants. A framework of symbolic actions conducted by ecosystem actors contributes to our understanding of activities undertaken at the fuzzy front end of innovation ecosystem emergence. This framework focuses on activities conducted at micro, meso and macro levels as participants prospectively construct future markets. Our findings highlight that future possible value propositions are embedded within market visions as participants position themselves and outline their roles in such future markets.