无足轻重的挫折:阿富汗撤军对中国评估美国公信力难以捉摸的影响

IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Yves-Heng Lim, Jon Cottam
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2021 年 8 月 31 日,在 "持久自由行动 "开始 20 年后,拜登总统宣布美国完成从阿富汗的撤军。随着来自喀布尔的画面在世界各地播出,艰难的撤军条件引发了对美国公信力的重大质疑。专家、学者和前决策者警告说,华盛顿的声誉受损可能导致中国决策者重新评估美国在印度洋-太平洋地区所做承诺的可信度。然而,很少有研究探讨中国是如何解读阿富汗撤军的。本文拟填补这一空白。文章认为,尽管中国观察家认为阿富汗撤军是由于美国缺乏决心造成的,但这种缺乏决心的看法并没有转化为美国的总体声誉损失,因此,中国观察家对美国在印度洋-太平洋地区的可信度的计算基本上没有受到阿富汗挫折的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Inconsequential setback: The elusive impact of the Afghanistan withdrawal on Chinese assessment of US credibility

On August 31, 2021, 20 years after the beginning of Operation Enduring Freedom, President Biden announced the completion of the United States (US) withdrawal from Afghanistan. The difficult conditions of the withdrawal raised major questions about US credibility, as images from Kabul were broadcasted around the world. Pundits, scholars, and former decision makers warned that reputational damages incurred by Washington could lead Chinese decision makers to reassess the credibility of US commitments in the Indo-Pacific. Few studies have, however, examined how China interpreted the Afghanistan withdrawal. This article proposes to fill this gap. It argues that though Chinese observers did see the Afghanistan withdrawal as caused by a lack of US resolve, this perceived lack of resolve did not translate into general reputational costs for the United States and, consequently, calculations made by Chinese observers about US credibility in the Indo-Pacific region remain largely unimpacted by the Afghanistan setback.

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来源期刊
Asian Politics & Policy
Asian Politics & Policy POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
2.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
53
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