COVID-19 大流行期间人口流动对美国七个城市用电量的影响

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2024.101804

Zhifeng Guo , Jesse R. O’Hanley , Stuart Gibson

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了 COVID-19 大流行对美国七个城市用电量的影响。高层分析显示，用电量的减少大多是短期的，主要是在刚开始实行封锁时。我们使用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型将用电量分解为多个量身定制的组成部分，以更好地了解大流行病的影响。我们发现，包含人口流动性的模型在使用大流行前的数据时准确率很高，而使用大流行后的数据时准确率更高。在大流行的前六周，除一个城市外，其他所有研究城市的用电量都有所下降。

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Influence of population mobility on electricity consumption in seven U.S. cities during the COVID-19 pandemic

We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption in seven U.S. cities. A high-level analysis reveals that reductions in electricity consumption were mostly short-term, mainly when lockdowns were first introduced. Bayesian structural time series modeling was used to decompose electricity consumption into multiple tailored components to better understand the pandemic's impact. We find that models incorporating population mobility achieved high accuracy rates using pre-pandemic data and even better rates using post-pandemic data. Electricity usage dropped during the first six weeks of the pandemic in all but one of the cities studied.

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.