{"title":"带检疫的竞争性呼吸道疾病系统分析:流行阈值和交叉免疫效应","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.amc.2024.128968","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Our study investigates the dynamics of disease interaction and persistence within populations, exploring various epidemic scenarios, including backward bifurcation and cross-immunity effects. We establish conditions under which the disease-free equilibrium of the model demonstrates local or global asymptotic stability, contingent on the efficacy of quarantine measures. Notably, we find that a strain with a quarantine reproduction number greater than 1 will out-compete a strain with a quarantine reproduction number less than 1, leading to its extinction under complete immunity conditions. Additionally, we identify scenarios where diseases persist in a sub-critical coexistence endemic equilibrium, despite one control reproduction number being below one. Our exploration of backward bifurcation reveals the model's capacity to accommodate the coexistence of the disease-free equilibrium with up to four endemic equilibria. Moreover, we demonstrate that the existence of cross-immunity enhances the coexistence of two strains. However, co-infections and imperfect quarantine measures pose significant challenges in containing outbreaks, sustaining the outbreak potential even with successful control of individual virus strains. Conversely, controlling outbreaks becomes more manageable in the absence of co-infections, especially with perfect quarantine measures. We conclude by advocating for public health strategies that address the complexities posed by co-infections, emphasizing the importance of simultaneously tackling multiple pathogens.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55496,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematics and Computation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0096300324004296/pdfft?md5=4ab1de87e69240be0b1752f00eb49ede&pid=1-s2.0-S0096300324004296-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysis of a competitive respiratory disease system with quarantine: Epidemic thresholds and cross-immunity effects\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.amc.2024.128968\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Our study investigates the dynamics of disease interaction and persistence within populations, exploring various epidemic scenarios, including backward bifurcation and cross-immunity effects. We establish conditions under which the disease-free equilibrium of the model demonstrates local or global asymptotic stability, contingent on the efficacy of quarantine measures. Notably, we find that a strain with a quarantine reproduction number greater than 1 will out-compete a strain with a quarantine reproduction number less than 1, leading to its extinction under complete immunity conditions. Additionally, we identify scenarios where diseases persist in a sub-critical coexistence endemic equilibrium, despite one control reproduction number being below one. Our exploration of backward bifurcation reveals the model's capacity to accommodate the coexistence of the disease-free equilibrium with up to four endemic equilibria. Moreover, we demonstrate that the existence of cross-immunity enhances the coexistence of two strains. However, co-infections and imperfect quarantine measures pose significant challenges in containing outbreaks, sustaining the outbreak potential even with successful control of individual virus strains. Conversely, controlling outbreaks becomes more manageable in the absence of co-infections, especially with perfect quarantine measures. We conclude by advocating for public health strategies that address the complexities posed by co-infections, emphasizing the importance of simultaneously tackling multiple pathogens.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":55496,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Applied Mathematics and Computation\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0096300324004296/pdfft?md5=4ab1de87e69240be0b1752f00eb49ede&pid=1-s2.0-S0096300324004296-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Applied Mathematics and Computation\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0096300324004296\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICS, APPLIED\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Mathematics and Computation","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0096300324004296","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, APPLIED","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysis of a competitive respiratory disease system with quarantine: Epidemic thresholds and cross-immunity effects
Our study investigates the dynamics of disease interaction and persistence within populations, exploring various epidemic scenarios, including backward bifurcation and cross-immunity effects. We establish conditions under which the disease-free equilibrium of the model demonstrates local or global asymptotic stability, contingent on the efficacy of quarantine measures. Notably, we find that a strain with a quarantine reproduction number greater than 1 will out-compete a strain with a quarantine reproduction number less than 1, leading to its extinction under complete immunity conditions. Additionally, we identify scenarios where diseases persist in a sub-critical coexistence endemic equilibrium, despite one control reproduction number being below one. Our exploration of backward bifurcation reveals the model's capacity to accommodate the coexistence of the disease-free equilibrium with up to four endemic equilibria. Moreover, we demonstrate that the existence of cross-immunity enhances the coexistence of two strains. However, co-infections and imperfect quarantine measures pose significant challenges in containing outbreaks, sustaining the outbreak potential even with successful control of individual virus strains. Conversely, controlling outbreaks becomes more manageable in the absence of co-infections, especially with perfect quarantine measures. We conclude by advocating for public health strategies that address the complexities posed by co-infections, emphasizing the importance of simultaneously tackling multiple pathogens.
期刊介绍:
Applied Mathematics and Computation addresses work at the interface between applied mathematics, numerical computation, and applications of systems – oriented ideas to the physical, biological, social, and behavioral sciences, and emphasizes papers of a computational nature focusing on new algorithms, their analysis and numerical results.
In addition to presenting research papers, Applied Mathematics and Computation publishes review articles and single–topics issues.