External validation of different predictive scores for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after intravenous thrombolysis in Asian stroke patients

Objective

This study aimed to externally validate different predictive scores for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (SICH) after intravenous thrombolysis (IVT), with a particular focus on their predictive abilities in Asian stroke patients.

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled stroke patients who received a standard dose of alteplase within 4.5 hours from symptom onset at the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University from July 2010 to August 2023. SICH was defined as the hemorrhagic transformation detected on the head CT scan completed within 48 h post-IVT, accompanied by a clinical deterioration of at least a 4-point increase in NIHSS score. Predictive abilities of the HAT, MSS, SEDAN, SPAN-100, and GRASPS scores were tested. Discrimination and calibration were performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), DeLong test, and Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test.

Results

The study included 1007 stroke patients, of whom 31 (3.08 %) developed SICH. ROC-AUCs for predicting SICH were: 0.796 (95 %CI: 0.726–0.866) for the GRASPS score, 0.724 (95 %CI: 0.644–0.804) for the MSS score, 0.715 (95 %CI: 0.619–0.811) for the SEDAN score, 0.714 (95 %CI: 0.611–0.817) for the HAT score, and 0.605 (95 %CI: 0.491–0.720) for the SPAN-100 score (all P < 0.05). DeLong tests showed that the GRASPS score demonstrated significantly better discrimination than the MSS score (P = 0.010), the SEDAN score (P = 0.009), the HAT score (P = 0.049), and the SPAN-100 score (P = 0.000). H-L tests indicated good calibrations which were ranked HAT > SEDAN > MSS > SPAN-100 > GRASPS scores.

Conclusion

The GRASPS score showed reasonable predictive ability for SICH, indicating its potential utility for Asian stroke patients receiving IVT.