Intensified effect of nitrogen forms on dominant phytoplankton species succession by climate change

Nutrient proportion, light intensity, and temperature affect the succession of dominant phytoplankton species. Despite these insights, this transformation mechanism in highly turbid lakes remains a research gap, especially in response to climate change. To fill this gap, we investigated the mechanism by which multi-environmental factors influence the succession of dominant phytoplankton species in Lake Chagan. This investigation deployed the structural equation model (SEM) and the hydrodynamic-water quality-water ecology mechanism model. Results demonstrated that the dominant phytoplankton species in Lake Chagan transformed from diatom to cyanobacteria during 2012 and 2022. Notably, Microcystis was detected in 2022. SEM revealed the primary environment variables for this succession, including water temperature (T_w), nutrients (total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and ammonia nitrogen (NH₄N)), and total suspended solids (TSS). Moreover, this event was not the consequence of zooplankton grazing. An integrated hydrodynamic-water quality-bloom mechanism model was built to explore the mechanism driving phytoplankton succession and its response to climate change. Nutrients determined the phytoplankton biomass and dominant species succession based on various proportions. High NH₄N:NO₃N ratios favored cyanobacteria and inhibited diatom under high TSS. Additionally, the biomass proportions of diatom (30.77 % vs. 22.28 %) and green (30.56 % vs. 23.30 %) decreased dramatically. In contrast, cyanobacteria abundance remarkably increased (35.78 % to 51.71 %) with the increasing NH₄-N:NO₃-N ratios. In addition, the proportion of non-nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria was higher than that of the nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria counterparts when TN:TP≥20 and NH₄N:NO₃N ≥ 10. Light-limitation phenotypes also experienced an increase with the rising NH₄N:NO₃N ratios. Notably, the cyanobacterial biomass reached 3–6 times that in the baseline scenario when the air temperature escalated by 3.0 °C until 2061 under the SSP585 scenario. We highlighted the effect of nitrogen forms on the succession of dominant phytoplankton species. Climate warming will increase nitrogen proportion, providing an insightful reference for controlling cyanobacterial blooms.